Why TDP lost LS seat despite winning 4 Assembly segments

JSP, Avanthi’s defection ate into voter base of ruling party, say poll pundits

YSRCP MP-elect M.V.V. Satyanarayana and Bhimili MLA-elect Muttamsetti Srinivasa Rao being felicitated by the party workers in Visakhapatnam on Friday.

Even as the TDP registered victories in all the four Assembly segments in the city limits, it has lost Visakhapatnam Lok Sabha seat to the YSRCP by a slender margin,

After rejecting Y.S. Vijayamma, mother of YSCRP president Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy in 2014 elections, the voters here have elected M.V.V Satyanarayana of the same party.

Going by the trend, Visakhapatnam LS constituency is unique in its nature. It has seven Assembly segments including the four in the city limits and Gajuwaka and Bheemili, both suburban in nature, and S. Kota (Srungavarapukota), a rural segment.

Primarily, S. Kota, considered as a TDP bastion, has a total electorate of about 2.12 lakh of which 1.82 lakh (85.69%) had exercised their franchise this elections, the highest in the district.

Surprise element

According to poll pundits, YSRCP candidate M.V.V Satyanarayana drubbing TDP’s M. Sri Bharat with a margin of 4,414 votes was a surprise, given the fact that the TDP registered win in four of the seven Assembly segments.

Usually, the victory or loss of an MP candidate depends on the fortunes of those in the fray from the Assembly segments. If the MLA candidates win, it is very likely that the same is replicated for the party’s MP candidate, unless there is a huge cross-voting, poll analysts explain.

Cross-voting

In 2014 general elections, when Ms. Vijayamma was defeated by BJP’s K. Haribabu, the seven MLA segments were shared by the coalition partners TDP (six) and BJP (one). S. Kota had played a key role as almost the entire TDP segment in that Assembly segment had voted for Mr. Haribabu.

This time S. Kota and Bhimili segment appears to have played a key role in tilting the equation in the favour of the YSRCP. Sources say that in both the segments, the TDP votes were split and YSRCP stood to gain.

“We have won all the four Assembly seats which means the voters have reposed faith in the TDP. However, the votes were split in Bhimili and S. Kota which made the difference,” says a TDP veteran leader.

The MLA-elect from Bhimili, Muttamsetti Srinivasa Rao (Avanthi) of YSRCP, who defected from TDP just before the polls, had also contributed to Mr. Satyanarayana’s win as he appeared to have pulled a good chunk of TDP voters for the YSRCP, he added.

VV factor

Poll pundits say that Jana Sena Party’s (JSP) V.V. Lakshminarayana appeared to have split the votes which worked against Mr. Sri Bharat. The JSP worked closely with the TDP in 2014 elections, but this time both were rivals. Mr. Lakshminarayana polled closed to 2.88 lakh votes, and most of it was from the urban segment, which included the huge cross-voting by the TDP’s voter base.

Of the total 12.28 lakh votes polled, Mr. Satyanarayana and Mr. Sri Bharat together garnered about 8.8 lakh and the next major chunk was polled in favour of Mr. Lakshminarayana.