The support of the alliance partners, in particular the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), may be crucial for the ruling AIADMK to retain the Tiruchi (West) Constituency in the by-election to be held on October 13.
Former DMK Minister K.N. Nehru's presence in the field is expected to make it a good contest.
Tiruchi West is not a happy hunting ground for the AIADMK.
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The constituency has been returning DMK nominees since 1996 elections, until Mariam Pichai — whose tragic death in a road accident on his way to assuming office as a Minister caused the by-election — won from here in the April 13 elections.
The AIADMK alliance registered a resounding win in eight of the nine assembly constituencies in the district in the recent Assembly elections — AIADMK 7 and DMDK.
The AIADMK recorded impressive victory margins in all the constituencies except Tiruchi West. The party's victory margin of a little over 7,179 votes was the lowest among its seven wins. The party romped home with bigger margins in Musiri (43,791 votes); Srirangam (41,848 votes); Manapparai (28,299); Tiruchi East (20,626); Manachanallur (19,190); and Thuraiyur-reserved (10,935).
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Mariyam Pichai, who had lost to Mr. Nehru in the 2006 election in the same constituency, could win only by a slender margin, indicating that the party's support base in Tiruchi West is not as strong as in the rest of the district.
The AIADMK's allies in the Assembly elections feel that they will have a vital role in the ruling party's fortunes in the by-polls. This is especially true of DMDK, which did well in this constituency when it contested for the first time in the 2006 Assembly election. The DMDK could garner over 14,000 votes in the Tiruchi West seat then.
The party's candidate was A. D. Sendureeswaran, who finished third behind the DMK nominee K. N. Nehru and the AIADMK's Mariyam Pichai.
During negotiations in the run-up to the April 2011 Assembly election, the DMDK fought till the last minute for getting the Tiruchi West seat in the AIADMK alliance. But the AIADMK stood firm in contesting from here.
The Left parties too have a considerable vote bank in this constituency. The parties together have three Corporation councillors – CPI has two and CPI (M) one – elected from the wards situated in the Tiruchi West seat. “The DMK has fielded a much stronger candidate. No doubt, the AIADMK will have to depend much on the Left and the DMDK for retaining this seat”, says K. Suresh, secretary of the city party unit of the CPI.
Yet another factor which ensured the late Mariyam Pichai's win here last time is the Muslim vote bank.
The support extended by the Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK) played a role in garnering the votes of the minorities for Pichai. The TMMK was expecting the AIADMK to field a candidate from minority community again here. The AIADMK will have to work hard to get the support of Muslim voters, the locals say.