The chances of a swing or shift in minority votes seem to be annoying the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in at least 10 Assembly segments where the party as well as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) claims to have put up a stiff challenge to the rival fronts.
According to BJP sources, a consolidation of minority votes, both Muslim and Christian, would clearly work to its disadvantage in certain segments where the party deems to have the possibility of winning or at least emerging runner-up.
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Though the BJP as well as the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), its main ally, claims to wield the clout to spoil the prospects of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) in a number of constituencies across the State, both parties have zeroed in on certain seats, mostly in Central Travancore as well as Thiruvananthapuram and North Kerala, and is making an all-out bid to get the best results.
For instance, in Thiruvananthapuram district, where the party has fielded almost all its prominent leaders, including State president Kummanam Rajasekharan, former presidents V. Muraleedharan and P.K. Krishnadas as well as senior leader O. Rajagaopal, the campaign managers anticipate a strong consolidation of minority votes.
This rule applies most significantly in the case of Nemom, Kattakada and to a certain extent Vattiyurkavu.
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It remains to be seen whether their plan to make amends through a consolidation of Hindu votes would work or not.
The recent developments, mainly the death of a law student at Perumbavoor, have brought together various Dalit organisations.
Though the BJP leadership has been in the forefront of the campaign demanding justice for the victim, the top brass is reported to be sceptical about its outcome.
The party’s bid to build bridges with different denominations of the Christian community has not yielded the desired results and this may reflect in the performance of the candidates in Aranmula, Chengannur, Ranni, Thiruvalla and such others where the Christian votes are a decisive factor.
Campaign by Modi, Shah
Consolidation of Muslim votes would prove to be crucial in Kodungalloor as well as a number of seats in Kozhikode and Kasaragod districts.
The high-voltage campaign unleashed by the party at the behest of prominent leaders led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah and a large of number of Central Ministers during the last leg may also catalyse the consolidation process, sources said.
False notion
BJP State spokesperson J.R. Padma Kumar seeks to dispel the minority consolidation theory as a false notion.
“Since the Modi government assumed office, it has been adopting welfare programmes covering the entire society with a thrust on social justice. Everyone, especially the youth, is aware of the welfare programmes of the government and hence the campaign that the party is aiming at a Hindu consolidation will not hold water anymore. People are concerned more about development and welfare rather than such issues,” he said.