Prediction about dip in cases was right, say officials

By September 30, COVID-19 cases would start dipping in districts apart from the GHMC region, Health officials had earlier predicted. However, around 80-140 cases a day continue to be reported from Karimnagar, Nalgonda, Khammam and Bhadradri Kothagudem.

In the first week of August, senior officials had said that cases in GHMC will dip by August-end, and in other districts by September-end. Currently, around 300-350 cases per day continue to be recorded in GHMC limits.

Officials said their estimations have come true. “I am not saying there will be no cases. Definitely, there will be cases. The numbers should decline gradually, not in peaks and troughs,” said Director of Public Health G. Srinivasa Rao.

The senior official said that barring two to three districts, less number of cases are being reported in districts apart from GHMC. Around 300-350 cases in GHMC against one crore population in the municipal limits was considered as low, he added.

Asked if their estimates were right, Dr. Srinivasa Rao said three indicators are taken into consideration to show that a pandemic is under control — number of tests per million, positivity rate and number of hospital admissions.

The official said that the tests per million is higher than World Health Organisation’s recommendation, and positivity rate and number of admission in hospitals have come down.

The positivity rate which was 23% in July, the highest since March, has come down to 4% in September. “For 3.7 crore population in our State, 5,440 tests per million population is sufficient. But we are performing 79,206 tests per million. The number of admissions in government and private hospitals too have come down,” he added.