Indo-French initiative to forecast monsoon better

A final decision on the joint effort will be taken during talks between the two countries in October and the project will be launched in December. Asked if there was any impact of the El Nino phenomenon on the monsoon in the country, Dr. Nayak said there had been no direct impact so far.

In a bid to predict the monsoon better than extant systems, India and France will launch a joint initiative by the year-end, according to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

A final decision on the joint effort will be taken during talks between the two countries in October and the project will be launched in December, MoES Secretary Shailesh Nayak said. Speaking on the sidelines of a workshop on climate change and monsoon organised by INCOIS and ESSO-IITM here on Monday, Dr. Nayak said eight more countries were interested in joining the initiative.

Asked if there was any impact of the El Nino phenomenon on the monsoon in the country, Dr. Nayak said there had been no direct impact so far, and the near normal monsoon was an indication. “Even if there is some impact, it will only be towards the year-end as forecasts so far have been near-accurate,” he said, adding that as against the prediction of 93 per cent normal precipitation in July, actual figures were 90.3 per cent.

Dr. Nayak said recent findings indicated that the polar regions had a major impact on the monsoon on a decadal scale, and the Indo-French joint initiative would study the aspect further. Explaining that total quantity of monsoon rainfall had not changed in recent decades, but there had been changes to the pattern, the MoES Secretary said low and medium weather events were on the decline, while extreme ones were on the rise.

Earlier, speaking after inaugurating the two-day 6 Climate Workshop, Science of Climate Change - Monsoon and Ocean , former chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation K. Kasturirangan said it had now become imperative for India to adopt an aggressive approach to address issues related to climate change. Climate change would include and affect issues such as international policy, insurance, health, economy and law as understanding it had become essential for India from the perspective of water and food security, clean air, health and economy.

Dr. Kasturirangan said black carbon aerosols were second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming. While the US accounted for 33 per cent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions, India and China contributed over 30 per cent to black carbon emissions, he said. INCOIS Director S.S.C. Shenoi and ESSO-IITM Director R. Krishnan spoke.