Expect the usual razzmatazz at the biennial Frankfurt Car Show as brash industry leaders brag about their new motors, but this time ominous clouds are gathering which could damage unwary incumbents.
The IT industry, in the form of Apple, Google or Amazon, is believed to be threatening to muscle in, taking advantage of the technology step change posed by the connected car, and ones that are driven by computers.
Another threat to the incumbent industry, Tesla Motors of the U.S., won't be showing its latest model, the all-electric Model X SUV, but its battery-only technology contrasts with the German decision to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles as the industry moves to meet harsh carbon dioxide rules scheduled for 2021. Tesla is already eating into the top end sales of BMW, Mercedes and Audi.
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The threats are gathering because experts believe that in the future consumers will buy mobility rather than vehicles themselves. These new younger buyers, said to be unmoved by cars, will seek short-term rental or car-on-demand solutions for their transport needs. They dream of the day that they tap the app on their mobile phone to summon the driverless car when they need it.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley says sooner rather than later, car buyers will realise that their expensive cars are only used four percent of the time, a ridiculous waste of resources. Renting a car just for the required time is going to transform the industry. Uber is already pushing this concept around the world.
"Frankfurt will be an auto show that shows an industry in transition", says Professor Stefan Bratzel of the Centre of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany.
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"The main issue will be the connected car and the potential attack by the IT industry. I think the German car manufacturers and others know that by moving from a hardware-oriented to a more services-oriented business it won't be easy to combat Apple, Google, or Alibaba, although this tough race will take place over five to 10 years", says Bratzel.
At the show, the Mercedes S class convertible is likely to be the star turn. The Germans will be putting on a show on home turf, with BMW launching its flag-ship 7 series plus a new compact SUV, the X1. Mainstream unveilings will be led by the Renault Megane family sedan which competes with the new Opel-Vauxhall Astra, against the established leaders the Ford Focus and VW Golf. The Alfa Romeo Giulia will make its first public appearance, while Audi takes the wraps of its new A4 sedan, which will confront the BMW 3 series. Jaguar is joining the SUV stampede with its F-Pace. Toyota has redesigned the Prius hybrid to stunning effect.
To remind us that some buyers are richer than others, British luxury maker Bentley will unveil its huge and expensive Bentayga SUV, yours for €179,000. That will look cheap beside the Rolls-Royce Dawn convertible, at an eye-watering€268,000.