Congress had hoped that like in Karnataka, if the allegations and perception of the ruling party’s corruption stuck, it would be easier to trounce the BJP government led by Shivraj Singh Chauhan. But as Lokniti-CSDS post-poll data shows, M.P. is a case study in voters’ unwavering allegiance to the ruling party—something that trumped all other factors.
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Post-poll survey surprisingly found that nearly two-thirds (62%) of voters think that corruption in the State has increased (Table 1). However, this assessment did not translate into an anti-BJP vote. A little less than half of those who thought corruption had increased votes for the Congress, however, was not enough for the party to make much difference to the outcome (Table 2). On the contrary, 43% still believed that the BJP was an anti-corruption party—clearly implying that many did not see the state government as directly responsible for corruption.
For more than two voters out of three, corruption was a major consideration while deciding their vote (Table 3) but again, that too did not help the Congress much because among them, BJP’s vote share remained at a decent 43%, and Congress got only 45% of votes (Table 4). Needless to say, voters do have multiple considerations in making their final choice, and though corruption mattered, it did not matter enough to sway their vote.
Rahul Weston and Rishikesh Yadav are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS