The BJP touched the halfway mark in Goa in the Assembly election and is all set to once again form the government. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey provides evidence on the public perception of satisfaction with the BJP-led government at the Centre and in the State.
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More than half the respondents were dissatisfied (54%) with the performance of the Pramod Sawant government, with more than one-third (36%) being fully dissatisfied. The intensity of dissatisfaction with the five years of BJP government in Goa was much less, with less than half (47%) being dissatisfied. What is it then that allowed the BJP to reach the halfway mark? More than half the respondents (53%) were satisfied with the performance of the Narendra Modi-led Union government. A little over one-third (38%) were dissatisfied with the Union government. There was also a high level of satisfaction with the MLAs’ performance (many of whom were from the BJP), with a little over half the respondents (51%) expressing satisfaction with their performance (Table 1).
If the perception of traditional BJP supporters is to be kept in mind, they too seemed more satisfied with the five-year tenure of the State government (77%; including Parrikar’s time as Chief Minister) as compared with the satisfaction with the Pramod Sawant government (66%; difference of 11 percentage points).
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There was a much higher level of satisfaction with the Modi government among traditional BJP supporters, with nine in 10 (87%) expressing satisfaction with its performance.
Among those who stated that they voted on the basis of the performance of the State government, the Congress was ahead of the BJP by nine percentage points. On the other hand, those who said that they voted on the basis of the performance of the Union government, decisively preferred the BJP over the Congress (there was a difference of 50 percentage points). This factor clearly impacted the verdict and brought the BJP to the majority mark (Table 2).
There was also a lukewarm response to Pramod Sawant as the Chief Minister choice. Nearly one-seventh of the respondents (15%) voluntarily mentioned his name. This is a relatively low spontaneous response for a sitting Chief Minister. In 2017, though Parrikar was not the incumbent Chief Minster, 18% of respondents mentioned his name.
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Reduced intensity
Returning to the key theme of this analysis, the intensity of support for the ‘double-engine’ government has reduced this time compared with 2017. It is also important to record that there was no neat correlation between support for the ‘double-engine’ government and voting for the BJP and opposition to the ‘double-engine’ government and support for the Congress (Table 3).
Clearly the BJP securing another term in the State is linked to the support to the Union government and its leadership rather than to the State government and its leadership.
(Sandeep Shastri is the Vice-Chancellor, Jagran Lakecity University Bhopal, and the National Co-ordinator of the Lokniti network; Sanjay Kumar is Co-Director of the Lokniti programme at CSDS; Suhas Palshikar taught Political Science, he is currently the Co-Director of the Lokniti programme and chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics)