Sixty-five of the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam will go to the polls on Monday, deciding the fate of 539 candidates, including high-profile ones like Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and the BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate > Sarbananda Sonowal .
In neighbouring West Bengal too, 18 Assembly constituencies — mostly in the Jangalmahal area affected by left-wing extremism — will go to the polls on the same day.
Thirteen of the 18 seats have been identified by the Election Commission as leftwing-extremism affected, with voting ending in these at 4 p.m. as these are sensitive.
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This is the first phase in a larger election season in which five States will go to the polls.
The stakes are high for key national and regional players. The ruling BJP has a winning chance only in Assam, where it has stitched an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front. The saffron party likes to see this as an “indigenous people’s” alliance.
Assam is crucial for the BJP. It is the only State that can give the party reason to celebrate this year; it is a gateway to the north-east, where the BJP has been weak, and opposition to “Bangladeshi immigration”, an issue in Assam, is key to the party’s ideological world-view.
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Congress will gain where AIDUF is not in fray
Assam is crucial for the Congress too, which needs reasons to cheer after losing the Lok Sabha polls, Delhi, Haryana and Maharashtra. But Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is facing anti-incumbency and a grand BJP-AGP-BPF alliance.
The Congress has no formal tie-up with the All-India United Democratic Front of Badruddin Ajmal, the other key player having a large Bengali-speaking Muslim constituency in the State. However, with the AIUDF contesting just about half the seats, the Congress can hope to get most Muslim votes in the rest. It needs these but cannot afford an “indigenous”-versus-“outsider” polarisation.
The BJP has also accused the Gogoi government of “corruption” and “underdevelopment”, while Mr. Gogoi has accused the Centre of discrimination.
In Bengal, the few constituencies going to polls on Monday are being seen as tilted towards the All-India Trinamool Congress.The Bengal polls are very crucial for the Left front too, as the state was once a Left stronghold.
This apart, the Left has its eyes set on Kerala — which will go the polls with these states, though not in phase-1 — where the Left is being seen as a frontrunner.The coming together of the Congress and the Left in Bengal can damage the frontrunner AITC in some seats, but those are more in North Bengal than in this belt.