The Aam Aadmi Party continued its dominant run in Delhi by winning the Assembly election with a comfortable margin both in terms of seat and vote shares. While it continued to post dominant victories, the margins have dropped significantly in comparison to the 2015 poll.
Mapping the wins
The maps show winners in the 2020 and 2015 Assembly election. AAP's wins are shaded green, and the Bharatiya Janata Party's wins are indicated using saffron. While AAP maintained its dominance across Delhi, BJP increased its seat share in the eastern and north eastern parts of the national capital.
ADVERTISEMENT
Dominance extended
Overcoming anti-incumbencyADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
The ruling party managed to hold on to its vote base with only a marginal drop of 0.76% points. The Congress' vote share decreased by around 5% points, while the BJP's increased by a similar margin.
Marginal decrease
Change in vote share
Despite AAP’s big win, its vote share decreased in a majority of seats, compared to 2015. Graph shows the increase or decrease in vote share of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress in 2020 compared to 2015 for all the 70 seats.
Seats where the AAP's vote share decreased
AAP's vote share decreased in 38 seats compared to the 2015 poll, with Karawal Nagar seeing the largest drop of 13.56 percentage points. Each pink-coloured circle corresponds to a constituency.
Seats where the AAP's vote share decreased
AAP's vote share decreased in 32 seats compared to 2015. The party gained the most in Mustafabad, where it saw an increase of 23.07 percentage points.
Seats where the BJP's vote share decreased
BJP's vote share decreased in only seven seats compared to the 2015 poll. The biggest drop came in Delhi Cantonment (-6.17 percentage points).
Seats where the BJP's vote share increased
BJP's vote share increased in a 63 seats, with the biggest gain coming in Najafgarh, where the party saw an increase of 21.48 percentage points compared to the 2015 poll.
Seats where the Congress' vote share decreased
The Congress' vote share decreased in a whopping 64 seats. The biggest drop came in Mustafabad, where the party's vote share dropped by 28.79 percentage points.
Seats where the Congress' vote share increased
The Congress' vote share increased in only six seats. The biggest increase in vote share came in Kasturba Nagar, where it gained 10.01 percentage points.
Narrower wins
2015 saw AAP winning many seats by a huge margin. In 2020, the margins have come down. Of the 61 seats the AAP managed to retain in 2020, in 41 the win margin decreased.
Table shows the overall split.
Changing equations
The chart plots the constituency-wise win margins (%) in 2020 and the change in win margin compared to 2015, in percentage points.
Vote share ranges
While the AAP continued to secure a high vote %, its win margins were not so decisive as the BJP benefited from INC's drop in share of seats with a higher vote %.
Table shows the number of seats (in both 2015 and 2020) where the vote shares of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress were in particular vote share ranges. For example, in 45 seats, BJP had vote shares between 31% and 45%.
Class-wise vote
The BJP continued to do well in seats where wealth level was higher. The AAP again achieved high vote % among the poorer sections.
Table shows the vote shares of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress in four class-wise categories of constituencies.
Class-wise splits were arrived by using property price values for wards in the Municipal Corporation. Based on the ranges of these values, the constituencies were bunched as "poorest", "poor" and "middle" and "rich". Property price data was provided by Thejesh G.N.
Class equations
Data compiled by Vignesh Radhakrishnan, Sumant Sen, Naresh Singaravelu, Srravya C., Sayan Ghosh and Srinivasan Ramani