Nominal GDP growth projections ambitious given structural challenges: Moody’s

“We expect the economy to rebound at a more modest pace, with nominal GDP growth rising to around 8.7% in fiscal 2020.”

Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday said economic growth projections made by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her Budget for 2020-21 appear ambitious given the structural and cyclical challenges facing the Indian economy.

The Budget expects nominal GDP growth of 10% in the next fiscal , followed by 12.6% and 12.8% in FY22 and FY23, respectively.

“These forecasts appear ambitious given the combination of structural and cyclical challenges that the Indian economy faces,” it said.

Even before the significant slowing in economic expansion in 2019, nominal GDP growth had averaged about 11% over the five years from 2014 to 2018.

“We expect the economy to rebound at a more modest pace, with nominal GDP growth rising to around 8.7% in fiscal 2020 and 10.5% in fiscal 2021, from about 7.5% in fiscal 2019,” it said.