After substantial strides in agriculture production in the last few years, the likely occurrence of the El Nino will impact foodgrains output and put pressure on prices, the Economic Survey said.
The extent and impact of El Nino depends on temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. It occurs when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise above average for several months which adversely affects weather in many regions, the Survey said.
With 60 per cent of the total foodgrains and oilseeds being grown in the kharif season and with just about 35 per cent of the arable area being irrigated, agriculture is still dependent on monsoon. A comparison of rainfall distribution in the last five years in 36 met sub-divisions shows that rainfall distribution is the worst this year.
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The Met Department projected below normal monsoon at 93% of the long period average. Till June, rainfall is deficient by 43%. Kharif sowing has been delayed and the area planted is also lower by 43% till July 4.
While the record production estimates highlight the continued robustness of the agriculture, the productivity levels of rice and wheat had not risen.