Normal northeast monsoon forecast

COIMBATORE, OCT. 7. The Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) has forecast normal rainfall in most of the districts in the State in the coming northeast monsoon (NEM).

According to a release from the Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Directorate of Soil and Crop Management Studies, the forecast is based on the "Southern Oscillation index and Sea surface Temperature Values" using the Australian Rainman software.

The historical rainfall data collected from the TNAU research stations were used to represent district information.

In the absence of a research station in a particular district, data from the Rainman software were used.

Following is the amount of rainfall expected in different districts with 60 per cent probability.

Above normal rainfall (11 per cent more than the long-term mean northeast monsoon rainfall) is expected in Salem (350 mm) and Nagapattinam (1100 mm).

Normal rainfall (91-110 per cent of the long-term mean monsoon rainfall) is expected in Tiruvallur (620 mm), Chennai (810 mm), Kancheepuram (520 mm), Vellore (420 mm), Tiruvannamalai (440 mm), Dharmapuri (295 mm), Villupuram (600 mm), Cuddalore (560 mm), Erode (305 mm), Karur (290 mm), Dindigul (430 mm), Theni (360 mm), Madurai (350 mm), Tiruchi (480 mm), Thanjavur (530 mm), Sivagangai (250 mm), Ramanathapuram (415 mm), Virudhunagar (400 mm), Tuticorin (430 mm), Tirunelveli (470 mm) and Kanyakumari (380 mm).