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Temperature in State to rise by 2 degrees from 2021: report

According to the report by the Bangalore Climate Change Initiative-Karnataka, the north-eastern and south-western parts of the State will experience decrease in quantum of rainfall annually.

According to the report by the Bangalore Climate Change Initiative-Karnataka, the north-eastern and south-western parts of the State will experience decrease in quantum of rainfall annually.  

Three sub-divisions were picked to study climate variability

The projected variations in temperature, drought, and rainfall in the State for 2021 to 2050, contained in the final report submitted by the Bangalore Climate Change Initiative-Karnataka (BCCI-K) to the State Government in May, is sure to set alarm bells ringing.

Climate change is considered to be a major environmental threat to food production, water availability, biodiversity and livelihood.

Primarily agrarian

It assumes significance in Karnataka as the State is primarily agrarian, accounting for 5.83 per cent of the total geographical area of the country, and is ranked eighth in terms of size.

Three meteorological sub-divisions were picked to study climate variability in the State: coastal Karnataka (Dakshina Kannada and Uttara Kannada), north-interior Karnataka (Belgaum, Bidar, Bijapur, Dharwad, Gulbarga and Raichur) and south-interior Karnataka (remaining districts of the State).

The report says that most parts of the State are projected to experience warming of 1.8 degrees Celsius to 2.2 degrees Celsius over the 29-year period. The projected increase for annual average temperatures for northern districts is higher than the southern districts. These regions are expected to experience warming above 2 degrees Celsius by as early as 2030. The northern parts of the State are also projected to experience increase in minimum and maximum temperatures as well.

Rainfall

The southwest monsoon is the principal rainy season during which the State receives 80 per cent rainfall. The projected change in annual and seasonal rainfall (southwest monsoon) for all districts of the State for the 2021 to 2050 period too has been drawn up by the BCCI-K in its report.

For example, in Dakshina Kannada, there will be a minus 34.37 per cent rainfall in the January to February period, 2.08 per cent in the March to May period, minus 0.43 per cent in the June to September period and 8.28 per cent in the October to December period, the report stated.

The north-eastern and south-western parts of the State are projected to experience a decrease in the quantum of rainfall annually. This roughly co-related with observed trends over the last 30 years. Reduced amount of rainfall is projected for the period between June and September.

Drought

The period of absence of rainfall which is less than 2.5 mm daily for 40 or more contiguous days are treated an incident of severe drought. This is in consistence with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) definition of drought, the report said. During the study, it was found that in the kharif season (July to October), most northern districts are projected to have an increase in drought incidences by as low as 10 per cent to as high as 80 per cent.

The districts of Koppal and Yadgir are said to have a doubling of drought frequency in the kharif season. During the rabi season (September to February), drought frequency is projected to increase in most of the eastern districts of the State.

The western part of the State could have more rainfall and hence less number of drought incidences in the rabi season. The report stated that rainfall and temperatures are subjected to variability on all-time scales: intra-seasonal, inter-annual, decadal and centennial.

Food production system, water availability, water resources etc., are sensitive to these climate variables.

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