Yin without yang, that's T20 for you

When teams prize bowlers who can wield the long handle over bowlers who can bowl well, bowling quality suffers, and the already-pampered batsmen prosper all the more.

April 11, 2016 09:12 pm | Updated February 20, 2017 02:24 pm IST

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The first eight editions of the IPL saw 501 games which produced results within the prescribed 40 overs. 16 games either ended in a tie, or were abandoned incomplete. In this article, analysis of ball-by-ball data for each of these 501 games is summarised. For each team innings in each match, the number of dot balls, singles, twos, threes, fours, sixes, fives, instances of seven or more runs being scored per ball, and dismissals were recorded. This summary is built using this data and provides an overall picture of what determines results in T20 games.

In cricket, boundaries are deceptively frequent events. In the 21st Century, for instance, a four has been hit in Test Cricket once every 16 balls. A six, though, on the other hand, has been hit once every 281 balls.

The number of boundaries in Test Cricket can be put down to the fact that field settings tend to be attacking, boundaries are rarely protected, and it is the bad balls which go to the boundary. Teams which tend to have to set fields for bad balls tend to lose Test matches. In T20, things are different. A four is hit every 10 balls, but a six is hit every 26 balls.

In Test Cricket, 17 fours are hit for every six. In ODI Cricket about 7 fours are hit for every six. In T20 cricket, 2.7 fours are hit for every six. When runs from boundaries are rare, other things, like singles and the prevention of singles gain prominence. When runs from boundaries become more frequent, the importance of scoreless deliveries as well as singles reduces. Intuitively, this ought to be obvious. Hitting 2 sixes and blocking 4 balls in an over is the same as scoring 6 twos, or 4 threes. How often do we see 6 consecutive twos?

In ODI cricket, the rule of thumb before the ICC began its many experiments with powerplays in 2005 used to be that scoring 110 singles in 300 balls and keeping the opposition to less than 100 singles would be enough to win ODI games most of the time. The reasoning behind this was that the boundary-hitting ability would be more or less equal on both sides.

In T20, as the IPL data shows, these thumb rules have been shattered. The average winning team in the IPL faced 6.2 fewer dot balls than its opponent. 76% of winning teams in the IPL faced fewer dot balls than their opponents. On the other hand, the majority of winning teams scored fewer singles than their opponents. If we extend the test to consider all non-boundary runs (single, twos and threes), then the average winning IPL team scores 1.25 fewer non-boundary runs than the losing team.

The figures for non-boundary runs and singles suggest that they are not the determining factor for success. Teams are basically willing to concede a single off every delivery. Twos are scored half as often as Fours in the IPL. For every Six hit in the IPL, only 1.5 Twos are scored. The ability to score non-boundary runs does not separate teams in the IPL. What separates them is the ability to score boundaries.

The average winning team in the IPL scored 2.2 more fours and 1.4 more sixes than the average losing team. The team which scores more runs in fours and sixes has won 79% of all IPL games. The average winning team scores 17 runs more in boundaries than the average losing team.

Why are teams hitting fours and sixes more frequently in the IPL (and more generally in T20 cricket)? The answer to this is simple and will not be news to most readers. The batting side has 10 wickets to play with in an innings which lasts only 20 overs. Hitting fours and sixes involves risking dismissal. Dismissals are more frequent in T20 cricket. In Test Cricket in the current era, a wicket falls once every 63 balls. In ODI cricket a wicket falls every 36 balls. In T20, it falls once every 18 balls.

Out of mathematical necessity, when fours and sixes become ubiquitous, all other aspects are rendered irrelevant because teams have to worry about bigger problems. Singles and even twos are almost always uncontested, because the fielder in the circle and on the boundary is usually trying to protect the boundary and hence, hanging as far back as possible.

Dots balls are a problem only if a team cannot hit boundaries as well as the other side. The overwhelming advantage of bat over ball in T20 manifests itself through the predominant significance of scoring a boundary in this form of the game. A T20 game is not a contest between bat and ball. It is, at its core, a contest between the respective boundary-hitting depths of the two elevens.

In T20, the art of batting is distilled to the art of scoring boundaries. This has second order effects which are worth thinking about. For instance, given the strict limit on the number of overs 1 bowler can bowl, the value of playing a quality bowler is limited if a lesser bowler who can also hit the long ball is available. This has the effect of reducing the overall quality of bowling. Which, in turn, makes boundary-hitting easier. T20 creates virtuous cycles for hitters and vicious cycles for batsmen and bowlers who need each other in Cricket.

Is this the direction T20 wants to go?

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