Astronomers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have found a new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. Besides, their research can also help in space weather forecasting.
The astronomers have discovered a new correlation using 100 years of solar data from the IIA’s Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.
The intricacies of the solar cycle and forecasting space weather are important fields of current research, including in India. Space weather is concerned with the varying conditions within the solar system and its heliosphere influenced by the sun and solar wind.
What is space weather?
“The main components of space weather are the solar wind, coronal mass ejections, and solar flares. They can compress the magnetosphere of the Earth and trigger geomagnetic storms, which can affect communication and power transmission, damage spacecraft electronics, and threaten the lives of astronauts. Thus, space weather has a profound influence on modern civilization,” said the Department of Science and Technology.
Astronomers use many different ways to forecast the strength of the next solar cycle. This includes theoretical calculations based on dynamo models, extrapolations, precursor methods, etc.
The precursor method uses the value of some measure of solar activity at a specified time to predict the strength of the following solar maximum.
Number of sun spots
In a recently-published work, IIA researchers discovered that the width of the supergranular cells on the solar surface during the minimum year of the solar cycle is related to the number of sunspots seen during the subsequent solar cycle maximum. This simple method can be used in space weather forecasting.
The scientists studied the solar chromospheric images observed at 393.3 nm wavelength of Ca-K ion taken using the telescope that has been operating at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.
“Our analysis shows that these supergranular lane widths were positively correlated with the sunspot number. We found that the supergranular lane widths obtained near the mid-latitudes during the period of sunspot cycle minima are strongly correlated to the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle,” said K.P. Raju from IIA, the lead author of the study.
Published - August 15, 2024 06:59 pm IST
