Her connect with women and her experience in campaign management will help
I believe that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will make a positive difference to the fortunes of the Congress, albeit for reasons different from what the proponents of dynasty politics would like us to believe. Calculations of realpolitik are responsible for her having come to the forefront of the electoral arena. Until now, her role in politics was limited — at best a “fieldwork in-charge” of Rae Bareli and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh.
No pan-Indian parties/ leaders
For one, the Congress understands that the route to power is by taking Assembly elections seriously — there are no ‘pan-Indian’ national parties, nor are there leaders with such an appeal. The image of a pan-Indian party or leader is manufactured by political advertising done most effectively by active participation in election campaigns. And if victory comes by, then spending State budgets on advertising the leaders — especially their work in development and welfare. It is State politics that has been producing company-style CEOs in a democracy — Chandrababu Naidu was the first amongst Chief Ministers to have been anointed in this way. Nitish Kumar, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh have all successfully cultivated this image of vikaswaadi (pro-development) Chief Ministers.
Eastern U.P. is a cauldron of poverty and underdevelopment, awaiting its turn for roads, hospitals, electricity and other public services. Besides, women have emerged as an important demand group for developmental deliveries. It is in this context that Ms. Vadra’s soft approach, connect with women, and prior experience of campaign management in this region will come to her aid. She can at least connect with poor voters, especially women, and build a constituency that demands delivery of public services. In the process, a Congress revival at the grass-roots level can be a possibility somewhere in the future, if not in this round.
Politics over the years
However, this argument is open to the criticism whether the Congress elevated her for doing noble political deeds without expecting political fruits. Far from it — the Congress understands that its last round of State politics was played in the 1970s with Brahmin Chief Ministers like Kamalapati Tripathi, Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna, and Narayan Dutt Tiwari, and then in the 1980s with a combination of Rajput and Brahmin Chief Ministers such as Vishwanath Pratap Singh, Narayan Dutt Tiwari and Sripati Mishra. Thereafter, it has been the Mandal versus Kamandal theme, where power has circulated mainly between Yadavs and Dalits. With Yogi Adityanath becoming Chief Minister (he is known to have a Rajput lineage), it is a revival of the politics of the upper castes in U.P., this time in combination with dominant leaders from amongst the Backward Classes or in alliance with splinter formations of the Extremely Backward Classes. In an overt sort of way, it is this BJP move that gives Ms. Vadra the opportunity to begin discussions with important caste groups such as the Brahmins, and initiate issue-based discussions on reservations for the economically poor amongst the upper castes.
At the macro level, Ms. Vadra will be an equal to Congress president Rahul Gandhi in national campaigns. She will also help modify the ‘Rahul versus Modi’ pitch. Besides enthusing workers, she will lend an ear to workers and local politicians who have complaints against Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati — not all the anti-incumbency votes will go to the BJP. Meanwhile, her effort will be to bring a crop of karyakartas of the Congress on the streets, irrespective of who wins the battle in U.P. Times have changed since the 1970s, and the Congress has realised that the new script of post-Mandal politics holds opportunities in U.P. that Ms. Vadra could very well nurture.
Manisha Priyam is an Associate Professor of educational policy at the National University of Educational Planning and Administration
Charisma is not enough; a strong organisation, cadre, and new programmes are needed to win
It seems unlikely that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s ‘formal’ entry into politics would drastically improve the party’s electoral fortunes in U.P. in the general election. In electoral politics, a combination of organisation, ground-level equations, caste/community dynamics, and charisma is needed for success, and the Congress seems to be lacking in all of these in U.P. except the last.
The 2014 election results
In the 2014 elections, out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in U.P., the BJP won 71; its ally, the Apna Dal, won two; the SP won five; the Congress won two; and the BSP and RLD did not win any. However, the SP and BSP were in the second position in 65 seats, while their ally in the Mahagathbandhan, the RLD, was the runner-up in one seat. Thus, if we go by the past Lok Sabha results, the BJP-Apna Dal alliance will be the primary contestant in the whole of U.P. and will face the SP-BSP-RLD alliance as primary opponents in at least 71 seats. Other than winning two seats, the Congress was a runner-up in only six seats. This means it would be the primary opponent in only eight seats. In vote percentage terms, the BJP-Apna Dal got around 43% of the votes in 2014, the SP-BSP-RLD got 42.98%, while the Congress could get only 7.53%. In this scenario, while it’s likely that the BJP-Apna Dal alliance and the SP-BSP-RLD alliance will be in a neck and neck contest, expecting the Congress to reach even the two-digit mark in the State would be overambitious.
Still, the Congress’s electoral fortunes would have turned around for good had it made substantial progress on the organisation front and mobilised the support of new communities behind it. The party seems to be lacking on both counts. Its organisation has been in poor shape since the early 1990s and continues to have problems such as groupism and a lack of cadres. In contrast, the BJP, SP and BSP, and even the RLD in western U.P., can boast of a robust organisation and cadre. In terms of support of communities, the BJP alliance is influential among the upper castes and some sections of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance has substantial support from the Yadavs, Jatavs, a section of the Jats, as well as Muslims.
Limited capability
Where does the Congress stand in this highly polarised scenario, and which are the communities that will be voting for it this time, just because of Ms. Vadra? In the absence of an organisational structure, cadre, programmes, and newer social sections rooting for it, the capability of the Congress to efficiently contest and micromanage these elections is extremely limited. That doesn’t mean that the Congress’s numbers would remain static; it may win three-four more seats. But that will depend more on local factors than the entry of Ms. Vadra. Hence, if the Congress wins in Kushinagar or Barabanki or Saharanpur, credit for it would go to former MP R.P.N. Singh or P.L. Punia or Imran Masood, who have considerable influence and committed supporters in their regions. The local electoral equation is also favourable to them.
In politics, charisma does work, but not without proper organisation and social engineering. Ms. Vadra may be able to revive the U.P. Congress in the long run, if she continues dedicatedly in politics, but that is surely going to take some time. It is not going to happen now.
Rajan Pandey is a freelance journalist and co-author of ‘Battleground U.P.: Politics in the Land of Ram’
Her family name and star status are not enough; she needs a narrative
Politics is a complex matrix of multiple variables and it is always difficult to predict which of them will make the final splash. Among them, one that stands out is the ability of a leader to gain the trust of the electorate, which in turn depends on what he or she stands for at a given point of time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi gained the trust of voters by articulating the political moment of his time by combining aggressive Hindutva with development that was along the line of the ‘Gujarat model’. To this he added the image of being bold, having the ability to take risks, being honest, and having good intent. Today, Mr. Modi is being tested on the same lines. His vote bank perhaps still trusts his intent, but has started to doubt his abilities to manage the economy, create jobs and abate the agrarian crisis, among others. Voters are in a contemplative mood as to what to do with a person who is honest but incompetent.
Voters’ memories
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has entered the fray a bit late, but the moot question is, what does she stand for? What is the narrative and can she correctly identify the moment and articulate it? In the facelessness of the neoliberal reforms and their consequences, having a face to identify with is something that can be an entry point to gain the trust of the electorate, but it needs to speak to what the people want to listen to. Merely claiming ‘Indira is back’ is symptomatic of lazy thinking. Mrs. Gandhi is still remembered in the hinterlands and especially among the Dalits for the welfare policies she implemented. In a survey in which I was involved, some time back in Punjab, it was quite a surprise that in Ambedkar colonies, elderly Dalits spoke of Mrs. Gandhi with affection. They narrated stories of being given ration cards, housing and electricity. Ms. Vadra will be tested against such a memory, which could be a boon, but also a bane if she fails to articulate a welfare and pro-poor sensibility in her electoral agenda.
The need for a narrative
Ms. Vadra’s entry has sent a panic wave in the BJP because of her appeal amongst the youth and first-time voters, as well as Brahmins, Muslims, and women. Mr. Modi captured the imagination of the aspirational youth in 2014. Ms. Vadra can upset this equation in a major way provided she has a narrative. With a persistent agrarian crisis and jobless growth, what substantial difference can she bring?
Criticism of the BJP
Mr. Modi filled the gap with jumlas and slogans. Perhaps, she cannot resort to any of these, but in that case, what meaningful agenda can she bring to the persistent structural crisis of the Indian economy? Rahul Gandhi entered politics at the bleakest moment for the Congress, and struggled to find a narrative. Mr. Gandhi today seems to have found not only a narrative but a new purpose in his virulent political criticism of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. He is, perhaps, the only politician in India today who is creating a fresh narrative against what the RSS stands for. It is this new-found confidence that has made the BJP stand up and take notice.
Ms. Vadra today needs a script in order to make a significant difference. To assume that her family name and star status will see her through would be taking the electorate for granted.
Ajay Gudavarthy teaches at the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
