This refers to the erroneous belief that a person with huge domain knowledge also has the skill to apply such knowledge profitably. By the same logic, a person need not know everything about a field in order to make money in it. He only needs to possess the most important and relevant knowledge about the field. The green lumber fallacy was first noted by Turkish intellectual Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2012 book Antifragile . Dr. Taleb used the example of a commodity trader who made huge profits by trading green lumber (which refers to freshly cut trees) despite believing that he was actually trading timber that was painted in green.
