Odisha is voting for both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. If elected to power in the State Assembly for the sixth consecutive term, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik will create history. The fight is primarily between the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main Opposition party in the State. The Congress stands at a distant third.
In this election, neither communalisation nor developmental promises drive the Opposition’s campaign, particularly the BJP’s campaign, against the BJD government; instead, it is the issue of Odia ‘asmita (self-pride)’. A bureaucrat-turned politician, V.K. Pandian, the most trusted aide of Mr. Patnaik, has been at the receiving end. Mr. Pandian, who hails from Tamil Nadu, was an IAS officer and rose to become an all-powerful star campaigner for the party, second only to the Chief Minister.
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Before asmita became the core election issue, the bonhomie between the BJD and the BJP was well-known. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed Mr. Patnaik as a “dear friend” at a public meeting not too long ago. Both the parties were ready to enter into a pre-poll alliance, but for some reason this did not materialise. This led to a direct BJD versus BJP showdown in the State.
Odisha was the first State to be formed on the basis of language. Its unique identity derives from a rich cultural heritage and a significant historical legacy. As per the BJP’s narrative, this identity is under attack and the Odia people’s self pride will be further dented if they let the BJD govern the State again, as the reins will be in the hands of a non-Odia, namely, Mr. Pandian.
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The BJP’s electioneering in Odisha has appeared confused. The party aims to topple a two decade-old government, yet Home Minister Amit Shah has been asserting at rallies that the BJP doesn’t have much of an issue with Mr. Patnaik, but only with “the officer from outside”. Integrating the Ram Mandir discussion into the asmita narrative in a State where Lord Jagannath holds paramount importance is another example of the saffron party’s ill-conceived strategy.
Elections are mostly about the perception of the citizenry. The BJP in Odisha doesn’t seem to be winning the perception battle by relying on the asmita narrative alone. The term asmita is not even commonly used by the Odias. The party was not creative enough to come up with a term that would easily resonate with Odia voters.
Other key political issues, such as rising youth unemployment, the distressing state of health and education, economic migration, and so on have been pushed to the background with the talk of asmita. Despite Odisha having the highest youth unemployment rate in the country, as per a recent International Labour Organization report, the issue found rare mention in the BJP’s election campaigns. The party has also missed the opportunity to appeal to the crucial youth demographic. While the BJD made efforts to court this segment just a few months before the election, casting doubts on its genuine commitment, the BJP’s youth outreach programmes have remained limited.
The Opposition’s campaign, while emphasising asmita, have also failed to effectively tackle the BJD’s core strength — its support among women. There are at least 70 lakh women self-help group (SHG) members in Odisha who form the backbone of women’s political agency in the rural parts. The Opposition lacks serious intent to penetrate the robust structure of women SHG networks that largely favours the BJD.
The strategy of focusing on asmita over governance failures may have only appealed to a limited segment of upper-middle class voters who may not hold much electoral significance. The BJP does not appear to have learnt from its poor performance in the Panchayat election held two years ago, where it only won about 5% of the Zilla Parisad seats, a massive decline from its previous performance.
Moreover, by only targeting Mr. Pandian, the BJP has left brand Naveen unscathed. Deflecting attacks on his own image has been Mr. Patnaik’s single most successful strategy and the reason for his endurance throughout his more than two decade term in office. The Opposition’s campaign has played into his strengths. Mr. Patnaik could not have hoped for a better scenario.
Subhankar Nayak is a policy researcher. X: @subhankarnayak
