Responding to rumours in Karnataka about the Janata Dal (Secular) merging with the Bharatiya Janata Party, JD(S) leader and former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy publicly denied this, adding that his real political innings will commence in 2023. Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa of the BJP separately endorsed the merger denial statement. Public posturing apart, Mr. Kumaraswamy appears to be taking his party closer to the Yediyurappa government. Some of his recent decisions in this regard are worth scrutinising.
Support for the BJP
First, his support to the amendment to Karnataka Land Reforms Act, 1961 allowing non-agriculturists to buy agricultural land in the State is notable. Mr. Kumaraswamy defended his decision on the ground that the new Bill will result in increase the coverage of agriculture, attract youth to farming, and encourage new experiments in scientific farming in place of traditional farming.
Second, the JD(S) has formally supported the Yediyurappa government’s no-confidence motion against the Chairman of the Legislative Council, leading to ugly scenes in the Council recently. The JD(S)’s game plan appears to be to get the post of the chairmanship of the Council and leave the deputy chairmanship to the BJP. This may not go down well with many senior members of the BJP, even if Mr. Yediyurappa agrees with it.
Third, Mr. Kumaraswamy has adopted a soft line on the Centre’s farm laws, stating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi should be given a year’s time to see if the new laws are going to improve the financial status of farmers.
Decline of the JD(S)
The root cause for the self-interest-driven politics of the JD(S) is its inability to electorally reach a level where it can form the government on its own, ever since its inception. Its tally in the Assembly of 224 seats has been between 58 and 37.
The social base of the party is narrow and is dominated by the Vokkaliga community. A look at the seats won by the party in the 2018 Assembly elections establishes this. Of the 42 Vokkaliga MLAs in the Assembly, the JD(S) has 23 members. Its failure to retain seats in the by-elections of 2019 and 2020 has added to the party’s declining stature. It is necessary for the party to broaden its social base by wooing Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes. Expanding its reach to the northern and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions is also an imperative if the JD(S) hopes to gain a pan-Karnataka image.
An equally important reason for the apparent decline of the JD(S) is its dynastic character. Dynasty has made the party dysfunctional. With no democratically conducted organisational elections, the party lacks a committed cadre.
Additionally, Mr. Kumaraswamy’s disdain for ideology and his pursuit of politics as a business, coupled with statements that his father’s obsession with secularism has come in the way of his political ambitions being realised, are negative factors hindering his party’s performance. JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda maintains a strategic silence on many issues, signalling perhaps that he is allowing Mr. Kumaraswamy to chart out plans for the future of the party.
Win-win situation
At this juncture, an informal alliance between the JD(S) and the BJP appears to suit both parties. The BJP’s main objective is to contain and checkmate the Congress in the 2023 Assembly elections, if necessary, by getting into an electoral understanding with the JD(S). Mr. Kumaraswamy’s longer-term plan may be, if necessary, to become a Nitish Kumar for the BJP in Karnataka: if no party obtains a majority in the next Assembly elections, he could bargain for the Chief Minister’s post by supporting the BJP in forming a coalition government. Depending on the numbers, Mr. Kumaraswamy might even settle for the post of Deputy Chief Minister and bargain for key portfolios. This might be a way for him to pull the JD(S) out of its existential crisis.
P. S. Jayaramu is former Professor of Political Science, Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi
