During his visit to Punjab on June 29, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced that if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is voted to power in the 2022 Assembly elections, it would provide 300 units free electricity for each family and waive previous power bills. He did clarify that while the promise of providing 24-hour electricity would take time, waiver on power bills would be immediate.
Days earlier, he had also said that AAP would project a Sikh as the chief ministerial face of his party. Not projecting a local Punjabi face was cited as one of the reasons for the party being unable to form the government in 2017, in spite of a groundswell of support. While projecting a local face is imperative, Mr. Kejriwal may have over-estimated the ability of doles to see the AAP through in the 2022 elections. While populism has worked in the past, there are other issues which need to be addressed.
Issues that need to be addressed
First, while many people look at the Delhi AAP government’s focus on health and education with interest, there is a clear understanding that there are significant differences between Punjab and Delhi in terms of the economic landscape.
Second, there is a growing clamour for a government which gives primacy to the State’s long-term interests. Over the past two decades, when it was in an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) had kept mum on important issues related to Centre-State relations. There has thus been a clear void as far as effective articulation of Punjab’s regional aspirations and a number of Sikh issues is concerned. The Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, in spite of his proximity to the Congress high command, was perceived to be vocal in safeguarding the State’s interests. His triumph in 2017 can be attributed to the same, though in his current tenure he has failed to live up to that reputation.
It is true that after breaking its alliance with the BJP after the passage of three farms bills, SAD has been making the right noises on issues pertaining to federalism and also attempted to find common cause with other regional parties. But a large section of what comprised its core support base is still disenchanted due to the incidents of sacrilege of the Guru Granth Sahib and the killing of peaceful protesters during the tenure of the SAD government. While SAD has allied with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for the upcoming Assembly elections, there are murmurs that it could return to the BJP.
Making inroads into Punjab
If one were to look at the AAP, there is some interest in its governance model in Punjab. But there are concerns about its sidetracking of local leaders during the earlier election and its ambiguity on issues concerning Punjab, specifically on the river water issue. Apart from this, the high command culture of the party, like in other national parties, is not likely to go down well with voters.
Third, from a political standpoint, the AAP has little support in the Malwa region, but no support in Doaba or Majha. It may be able to make some inroads into these regions if it ties up with a breakaway group of the SAD, the SAD (Sanyukt). Also, if the AAP can draw a sizeable chunk of urban votes, which generally go to the BJP or Congress, it could be in a pole position. Finally, there is a growing awareness about the pitfalls of populism. While there has been opposition to the farm laws, the detrimental impact of the current wheat-paddy cycle which has caused the water levels to drop and impacted the environment has not gone unnoticed.
Punjab’s political landscape is witnessing an interesting churn. There is a general consensus that a futuristic vision for Punjab which gives precedence to the State’s interests is imperative. Unlike West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the regional party of the State which is best placed to do that, the SAD, has failed in recent decades.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is faculty member, Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat
