YES | Jitendra Singh
Be it in the economic, social or educational front, this government has strived to meet expectations
Four years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge of transforming the lives of more than a billion Indians. That day marked the beginning of a new dawn for the people of India who gave the mandate to him to not only take charge of the government but also to transform their lives in a ‘new India’.
Meeting expectations
In 48 months, the Modi government has been able to achieve what could not be achieved in 48 years by the dynasty in power. Be it the economic, social, educational, or any other front, this government has strived to meet the expectations of people. The decisive and bold decisions taken by the Prime Minister, without consideration of the political outcomes, have stood the test of time. Demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST) are testimony to this.
Demonetisation brought unaccounted money back into the legitimate economy. More than one crore taxpayers have registered under the GST. The number of income tax returns filed in 2017-18 rose to 6.84 crore, which is a jump of 80.5% from FY 2013-14. This indicates higher trust in the government, resulting in higher tax compliance. Also, 31.52 crore Jan Dhan accounts have been opened.
Under the Prime Minister-inspired Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, every citizen has taken charge of her surroundings. Over 7.25 crore toilets have been built, and over 3.6 lakh villages and over 17 States and Union Territories have been declared open defecation free.
Schemes for women
The government has also taken a sensitive view of women in the country. Close to 3.8 crore women have already got LPG connections under the Ujjwala Yojana and the aim is to benefit eight crore women by providing them access to clean energy and smoke-free kitchens. The government is also providing cash incentive of ₹6,000 to pregnant/lactating mothers. More than 50 lakh women are expected to benefit every year from this.
The Prime Minister appealed to the people to save the girl child under the ‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’ campaign. The results are for us to see. The improving trends in sex ratio at birth are visible in 104 districts. The government is committed to ensuring the safety of girls. Laws have been framed for crimes against girl children. The death penalty has been introduced for those who rape children under 12 years, and the minimum punishment for the rape of a girl under 16 years has increased from 10 years to 20 years.
In merely 48 months, the Modi government has succeeded in reaching those areas which were rarely attended to earlier. Northeast India is one of them. Connectivity was a big issue in the Northeast. Now the region is fully integrated with the rest of India with the rail network converted to broad gauge. Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram have emerged on India’s rail map for the first time.
Not only in the Northeast, the emphasis of the government is on boosting and improving connectivity in other parts of the country too. When this government took charge, roads were being constructed at a speed of 12 km/day; now it is 27 km/day. Under the UDAN scheme, 25 airports have been added since December 2016, and 106 additional inland waterways have been added since 2014.
The government has also been sensitive to the marginalised. Earlier, home loans were given up to ₹6 lakh at a subsidised rate of 6.5%. Now housing loans of up to ₹9 lakh and ₹12 lakh get interest subventions of 4% and 3%, respectively.
Jitendra Singh is a Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office
NO | Sushmita Dev
All our institutions have been compromised under this government
The 2014 election was no ordinary election. A single man travelled the length and breadth of the country telling the people that the time had come to do things differently. He held his opponents responsible for the state of the nation and played to the gallery. Corruption, crime, jobs, economy, fuel prices, farmers — everything was an issue. And how can I forget religion, which was very carefully taken right to the grass-roots by his workers? I could fill this space with innumerable figures, but I hope it suffices to say that the performance of the government on all these issues has been poor. Furthermore, communalisation has become an inherent part of the government’s rhetoric and is resorted to before every election even as all the other issues of the 2014 campaign have become non-issues.
What sets India apart
To my mind, the evaluation of India as a nation cannot be merely on the number of villages electrified or toilets built or the allotment of gas connections. These parameters alone won’t do justice. What has set India apart is the way we uphold our Constitution and how those who don’t are made accountable, how our parliamentary democracy works in favour of allowing all possible opposition, how our judiciary can fearlessly strike down legislation ultra vires of the Constitution, and how the fourth pillar of our democracy functions not just as a business but also as the conscience of the nation. These are the real yardsticks to measure how a government is really treating a nation and its people. This is where the current government has failed the country. The Election Commission, the Governor’s office, the Reserve Bank of India, the courts and journalists are all an integral part of a system that is based on checks and balances and keeps the government accountable. All our institutions have been compromised during the tenure of this government.
Missing the real game changers
The Parliament, which stands for representation and accountability, has also been compromised. Parliament is often subverted and fewer Bills are sent to the Standing Committees. Parliamentary scrutiny of legislation is also compromised. A closer look at policymaking under this government reveals that while the government boasts of its brute majority, it has failed to usher in the real game changers. It has no answers to why in four years, and despite the government’s majority, India still awaits its biggest social and political reform in the form of the Women’s Reservation Bill. The government’s narrative on women’s empowerment is the triple talaq Bill which criminalises an act that has itself been nullified by the apex court. The death penalty for the rape of a child is the recent entry in this tall list of claims, while many important structural recommendations of the Justice Verma Committee still await implementation. The government claims to have the maximum number of women in its Cabinet but in a country that has had a woman Prime Minister early on in its democratic history, is this really a milestone to be celebrated?
Everything for this government is rooted in tokenism and photo-ops. It is about what makes Narendra Modi and the BJP look good. This comes at the cost of our institutions. We are still waiting for the government to make good on its various promises — bringing back black money and changing the education policy, to name a few.
Sushmita Dev is a Congress MP from Assam
IT’S COMPLICATED | Ajit Ranade
The micro is looking stronger but the macro is now facing some very severe adverse winds
Narendra Modi came to power with an unprecedented mandate. His victory was on the basis of his own personal credibility and charisma. His campaign was run in a presidential style and there was no doubt that he was going to be the Prime Minister of the National Democratic Alliance government. Soon after securing a simple majority, he was also blessed with the boon of oil prices crashing from over $100 to less than $35, which meant a big bonanza for the economy. Subsequently, his party was also able to secure office and run governments in over a dozen States. Against this backdrop, there were obviously very high expectations. His party’s manifesto and promises too had raised expectations.
Hits and misses
Against this backdrop of the electoral mandate, macroeconomic luck and promises, the Modi government’s performance is mixed. There’s no doubt that there have been some significant and deep structural reforms such as the passage of the insolvency code and the roll out of the GST, a decisive culmination of a long, halting process. The shutting down of the Planning Commission is to be lauded, since it had become an extraconstitutional authority in disbursing funds to the States. A new monetary policy framework is in place, focussed only on inflation targeting and the streamlining of the various subsidy and welfare programmes, and widening the direct benefit transfer (DBT) scheme. More than 300 schemes of the government now make use of the DBT, made possible with the opening of 315 million new bank accounts, especially for the poor.
So, these are the structural features which will eventually benefit the economy. What was missed out is that the huge fiscal bonanza that the economy enjoyed in terms of the fall in oil prices did not lead to an increase in capital formation ratio, massive job creation or revamp of the banking sector. The economy benefited cumulatively over two and a half years an estimated ₹10 lakh crore. This should have given a much bigger punch to the economy. In fact, the experiment of demonetisation hurt the GDP, and jobs especially, in the farm and informal sectors. We also did not see the government doing well on the disinvestment front, especially in many public sector units which had been lined up, including Air India and in banking. We did not see the opening up of FDI crucially in retail, and now that e-commerce has such a huge presence of FDI, it is de facto backdoor entry into retail. Also, the land acquisition process was supposed to be eased but it remains a big hurdle for expansion of industrial activity.
A mixed record
Thus, at the end of four years it looks as if the micro is looking stronger but the macro is now facing some very severe adverse winds. This is mainly because of high oil prices, which means higher inflation, interest rates, and higher fiscal and current account deficit. The fiscal deficit faces additional pressure due to various loan wavers and the need to cut excise duties. Demonetisation was a very expensive experiment even though the Prime Minister enjoyed tremendous public support. No doubt the taxpayer base increased and digital payments got a push, but the economy paid a huge price in terms of loss of national income and jobs. The continuing farm distress needs deeper structural reforms and serious unshackling of the farm sector. Banking woes loom large.
That’s why it is a mixed record. The economy is stronger and the micro foundations are getting stronger. But the electoral mandate, lower oil prices, and national expansion of the footprint enabling better Centre-State coordination have not led to a proportionate performance outcome in terms of increased investment ratios, capital formation, exports, industrial growth, disinvestment and readiness to face the coming adverse macro economic headwinds.
As told to Sonam Saigal
Ajit Ranade is chief economist at the Aditya Birla Group
