Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed believes he is a man of destiny. As a child, his mother had prophesied that her son would become a great ruler one day. The Prosperity Party the former intelligence officer launched, disbanding the multi-party coalition that brought him to power, is said to derive its name from an evangelical faith. Whatever his predilections, the Ethiopian leader has, since being catapulted to premiership in April 2018, stumbled from one crisis to another, imperilling the country’s recent economic record.
Use of force
When Mr. Abiy commanded a military offensive in November in retaliation against a Tigray rebel attack on federal army barracks, his reputation as a reformer and peacemaker already lay in ruins. He dismissed opposition to the use of force, insisting that the law-and-order operation would be wound up within weeks. For months, he denied the involvement of neighbouring Eritrean forces in the conflict. In March, Mr. Abiy likened Tigrayan fighters to “flour dispersed by the wind.”
But events on the ground tell another story. Thousands of civilians have been killed by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces and Tigrayan militias. Addis Ababa stands accused by the United Nations and Amnesty International of war crimes, ethnic cleansing and the resort to rape and hunger as weapons of war.
The unilateral ceasefire Mr. Abiy declared on June 28, purportedly on humanitarian grounds, carries little credibility, as Tigray continues to remain crippled by a blockade of essential supplies and communication and electricity blackouts. The U.S., Ethiopia’s long-standing military ally, has imposed sanctions on several top officials and the European Union has suspended millions of dollars in aid.
Meanwhile, after recapturing the regional capital Mekelle in late June, the rebel Tigray Defense Forces have taken thousands of Ethiopian troops as prisoners of war. They have demanded the withdrawal of all federal forces loyal to Mr. Abiy, besides an independent investigation into Ethiopian and Eritrean atrocities. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant party in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)’s autocratic rule until 2018, is resurgent. The organisation, which Mr. Abiy has dubbed a “criminal clique,” has stayed outside his Prosperity Party.
Debretsion Gebremichael, the President of TPLF, has raised the spectre of the territory asserting its right to self-determination under the 1995 constitution in view of its deepening distrust with Addis Ababa. Mr. Debretsion has also not ruled out TPLF retaliation against Eritrean atrocities in the ongoing conflict. Eritrea’s strongman President Isaias Afwerki, who signed the landmark 2018 peace deal with Mr. Abiy, has now allied with him, possibly to avenge his country’s bloody defeat against a TPLF-led Ethiopian government in the 1998-2000 border war.
Growing resentment
The volatile atmosphere is a far cry from the euphoria in 2018 when Mr. Abiy released political prisoners, lifted the ban on opposition parties and welcomed exiles home. An Oromo, the ethnic community that constitutes more than a third of Ethiopia’s population, Mr. Abiy ’s elevation symbolised the redressal of the country’s political imbalance. Tigrayans, who form less than 10% of the populace, had wielded power disproportionate to their strength for 28 years under the EPRDF coalition. In the event, the Oromos’ enthusiasm to assert their new-found freedom proved unsustainable and the Tigrayans began to resent the erosion of political influence.
Matters reached a head when Tigray held provincial polls in September 2020, defying Addis Ababa’s decision to defer general elections nationally in view of the pandemic. The ballot was eventually held on June 21, but not in at least 100 constituencies. Although Mr. Abiy has predictably won the election, the second most populated nation in Africa is at a crossroads.
Garimella Subramaniam is Director - Strategic Initiatives, AgnoShin Tecchnologies Pvt Ltd
