Electorally, it’s still status quo

It would be a big mistake to imagine that the Delhi rout means the BJP’s voter base has waned. The Bihar elections will be the real game changer.

May 23, 2015 01:27 am | Updated 01:28 am IST

It would be a mistake to conclude that electoral support for the Bharatiya Janata Party has been growing following the party’s massive victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and its subsequent victories in the Assembly polls in Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. However, it would be a bigger mistake to presume that the party’s electoral support has waned nationally after its rout in the Delhi Assembly elections. Thus, neither is the party’s success in four Assembly elections an indicator of rising support nor is its defeat an indicator of the opposite. The BJP may have remained the front-runner in terms of vote share in all four Assembly elections, but its electoral success was a result of several factors, the primary being the prevailing mood of anti-incumbency in these States. Further, people in these States lacked faith in their Chief Ministers, and the leaders of the various other political parties did not show much promise. The electoral debacle of the BJP in the Delhi Assembly elections was more a reflection of a desire for political change; votes were for a new kind of politics and a new leader rather than a vote against the BJP.

Of the five States that went to the polls after the Lok Sabha elections, it was in Maharashtra that the BJP’s vote share increased marginally. This was mainly due to the party’s decision to contest all seats; earlier it had only contested half the seats. But in Delhi, Jammu, Jharkhand and Haryana, its vote share declined by as much as 14.1 per cent , 9.4 per cent, 8.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, compared to its vote share in these States in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

These figures are hardly any indication of the BJP’s unchanging or rising support, as was witnessed in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in these States. The party did manage to increase its vote share compared to the previous Assembly elections, but it hardly managed to cross the one-third mark in many of the States. With other parties giving little hope to the people, the BJP formed the government in these States either on its own or in alliance with other parties. Findings of the post-poll surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)clearly indicate that more voters seemed unhappy with the work done by their respective State governments than those who seemed happy. What helped the BJP in winning these State Assembly elections was the positive rating given by the voters of these States for the work done by the BJP government at the Centre. That is not surprising as people seem to have allowed the government, completing its one-year term in office, an extended honeymoon. What also helped the BJP was a negative appraisal of the incumbent Chief Ministers of these States and the absence of formidable leaders in other parties. Also, by default, the BJP seemed to have benefited from the immense popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The opposition parties, failing to present a formidable face, could not counter Mr. Modi’s popularity. This is despite a strong campaign that the BJP was reliant only on Mr. Modi’s popularity and that his writ would not run in States.

The Delhi scenario In Delhi, voters did not reject the BJP, but decided to choose a new leader who seemed to show greater promise in addressing the State’s issues. The vote share of the BJP in successive Assembly elections in Delhi indicates barely any decline over the last few decades. The party still enjoys nearly one-third of the votes in Delhi. It was the front-runner in 2013, when anti-BJP votes were divided between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party, and gained more or less similar votes during the 2015 Assembly elections. In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, there was a consolidation of votes in favour of AAP, without the BJP’s votes declining. Similarly, during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP benefited from votes being polarised in its favour despite an increase in AAP’s vote share compared to the 2013 Assembly elections. The elections in 2014 was the only one since 1993 when the BJP’s vote share crossed the 40 per cent mark.

During the 2015 Assembly elections, the BJP’s core support remained intact, but it could not get the additional swing votes it needed to clinch a victory. This was because there was no anti-incumbency mood against the ruling government — Delhi did not have an elected government for a year. If there was any indication of the mood of voters in Delhi, it was of support for the AAP which had been in power in Delhi a year ago, for 49 days. The voters approved of the AAP’s short period in power, even while rating positively the work done by the BJP government at the Centre. The BJP also failed to take advantage of the leadership vacuum in Delhi, as it had done in the other four States. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal was extremely popular and hogged the limelight in the Delhi campaign. The AAP may have registered a massive victory in Delhi, but this in no way indicates a declining electoral graph of the BJP in the country.

People disappointed

That being said, it also does not mean that alarm bells are not ringing for the BJP. The initial sounds of these alarms can be heard in the five States, and the survey results indicate some unease among common people about the performance of the Central government over the last one year. There is disappointment and the people are still waiting for the achhe din and some farmers are questioning the government’s intention regarding the proposed land acquisition bill.

The tag of being “a government of the rich” is not helping the party either. Yet this unease has not yet crystallised into an anti-BJP mood among the electorate. Yes, the voters seem somewhat disappointed with the performance of the government in general, but what is holding the balance in favour of the BJP is that people still have faith in Prime Minister Modi. They are willing to give him some more time to deliver what he has promised.

Delhi was not the litmus test for the BJP; Bihar, set to go to polls later this year, is. While a defeat for the BJP in Bihar would certainly indicate declining electoral support after which it will be hard for the party to turn back, victory will bring some cheer and instil confidence that the party is still in the driving seat. We have to wait till September-October to clearly answer whether electoral support has declined for the BJP after its momentous victory last year.

(Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi.)

>

RSS to tone down criticism of the BJP

The Sangh has decided to back the Land Acquisition Bill that had the government on the back foot.

>

Modi and his Chakravyuh

In the Mahabharata, the Chakravyuh was a seven-spiralled battle formation. A look at what the seven circles of Indian polity are.

>

Promise on transparency

Without a head, functioning of CIC has come to a halt.

>

Dissent casts a shadow

Cut in fund allocations raises the hackles of Cabinet colleague.

>

No acche din for higher education

The govt's approach to education is destructive of autonomy and diversity, writes Zoya Hasan.

>

The republic without a language

The more we use words like 'saviour' or 'super hero', the more we lose the language of democracy.

>

When the traveller returns

Year Two has to be about the economy. The world is waiting to see what India has to offer in real terms, writes Sanjaya Baru

>

The strategy behind the inaction

Big economic reform is risky for BJP, whose priority is to replace the Congress as India's default party. By Dhiraj Nayyar

>

Tea goes cold in Bihar

The biggest challenge the BJP faces is the likely alliance of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, says Amarnath Tewary

>

Ghar ghar Modi, Bharat bhar Modi

Modi succeeds in building the foundation of a resurgent India, says V.N. Dhoot, Chairman of Videocon group

>

'States unlikely to bridge gap in funding'

Greater share in taxes may not compensate for budget cuts in Central schemes.

>

Hashtags that trended under #ModiSarkar

Here's a look at few hashtags that trended this year under the Modi regime, triggering some fairly heated online exchanges.

Modi's first year in cartoons

0 / 0
Sign in to unlock member-only benefits!
  • Access 10 free stories every month
  • Save stories to read later
  • Access to comment on every story
  • Sign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single click
  • Get notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products
Sign in

Comments

Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.