The results of the byelections in Himachal Pradesh have its own story to tell as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) grip over the situation has slid, which goes against the belief that the ruling clique has leverage to capitalise on. The State went to the polls on October 30 for the Arki, Kotkhai and Fatehpur Assembly seats and the Mandi Lok Sabha seat. The results have shocked the BJP.
Although the Mandi and Arki seats were expected to be under the BJP’s influence, the contest at Fatehpur and Kotkhai had weakened its prospects. However, the Congress’s sweep of all four seats went against popular expectations. What was more alarming was that the Congress had increased its vote share to 48.9% in the three Assembly seats against a meagre 28.1% of the BJP. Pratibha Singh, wife of former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, won by a margin of 8,766 votes against Brigadier Khushal Thakur for the BJP at Mandi. Rohit Thakur of the Congress defeated Independent Chetan Bragta by 6,293 votes, Bhawani Singh defeated the BJP’s Baldev Thakur by 5,634 votes and Sanjay Awasthy defeated the BJP’s Rattan Pal by 3,277 votes.
It has been a characteristic of the State for decades now that after a certain Government completes three to four years, an anti-incumbency factor comes to the fore and a formal changeover takes place. Factors like an anti-incumbency mood, failure to meet promises, ineffective leadership and the economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant role in the current development. Rising oil prices and the consequent inflation acted as the final nail in the coffin for the BJP. Moreover, the loss of stalwarts significantly influenced the results, though the controversial allocation of tickets by both the BJP and Congress also worked adversely for the two.
The BJP paid for the poor allocation of tickets to controversial candidates. In Kotkhai, it gave a ticket to Neelam Saraik against Mr. Bragta, son of former Minister Narinder Bragta; in Fatehpur to Mr. Baldev against former candidate Kripal Parmar and in Arki to Mr. Pal against two-time winner Govind Sharma. This did not go down well with party workers and led to infighting. The Congress also denied a ticket to Rajender Kumar in Arki, Virbhadra’s staunch follower. The BJP was also harsh to the rebels who worked against the party, since the official candidate could secure only around 3,000 votes in Kotkhai. The triangular contest due to intra-party factionalism, which saw a cross-party transfer of votes, seriously damaged the BJP’s position in the elections. Although at Arki, the Congress also saw a rebel in Mr. Kumar, the victory of Mr. Awasthi signified the presence of an anti-incumbency mood.
The results are also a warning to the central leadership since BJP national president J.P. Nadda and Union Minster Anurag Thakur hail from the State. The active presence of the duo during the campaign also received a jolt and may lead to a leadership shuffle in the State on the same lines as done in Uttrakhand this year. The real shock came from the Mandi seat, home of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. It must be an unnerving moment for Mr. Thakur as before the elections, there had been voices in the air about a repeat of Uttrakhand in Himachal.
These elections are a precursor to the Assembly election in 2022. It shows the testing times for the incumbent Government. Rising prices have been at the root of these losses according to several pre-election surveys. Unemployment and ineffective leadership also overturned the Government’s achievements of having attained 100% (first dose) vaccination during the pandemic. In between lies the riddle of politics, games of aspirations and intra-constituency dynamics that surely affect such elections.
Harish K. Thakur is Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla
