The biggest success of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s election campaign in Assam has been the virtual erasure of the rage against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) from public memory. The movement against the CAA was crucial in uniting the people of all communities in Assam. Even Bengali Hindus in Assam Valley were lukewarm towards the law that they feared might plunge the State once again into instability and chaos.
The BJP campaign
The BJP has followed a calculated, systematic plan to go about this. For months, it said little about the CAA, instead harping on its alleged historic achievements in ensuring that Assam was at long last on the path of vikas (development). The party’s rallies have been spectacular extravaganzas filled with airy promises and menacing innuendos. The BJP’s top leaders, including the Prime Minister, Home Minister and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, have repeatedly spoken of Assam’s glorious heritage. They have promised to preserve the State’s culture, traditions and civilisation and ensure that Assam remains free of militancy, agitation, infiltration, violence, corruption, flood and pollution, if voted back to power. The State leaders also borrowed from the war cries of the national leaders against an “alien civilisation” in the State and “Mughal invaders”. They have all repeated the cliche that all the Congress did during its rule was indulge in corruption and “appease” Muslims. Further, the BJP has handed out an incredible amount of money in the last quarter in the guise of welfare schemes, borrowing for that purpose, according to regional reports, ₹80,000 crore. Needless to say, it will be a tremendous fiscal burden on any future government in this financially ailing State.
The party has managed to assuage the pent-up fury of the common people who had been reeling under the effects of demonetisation, the Goods and Services Tax, soaring prices, unemployment, loss of income and the blow dealt to them by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many in the countryside now fear that if they don’t vote for the BJP, money will dry up, though it is certain that such largesse cannot be maintained much beyond the election. The BJP also released ₹2.5 lakh each to 8,756 namghars in August 2020. Namghars are centres of rural social life, though with waning influence. Incumbent Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has claimed that CAA is not an issue anymore. The party’s manifesto does not mention the CAA.
Despite all this, the BJP is not sure if it can repeat the triumph of 2016. It is holding quite a few high-pitched rallies at the last moment, possibly to befuddle judgment. Thousands of people accompanied Assam Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma when he went to file his nomination papers. But the youth, quite ahead of Opposition leaders, have been scathing in their remarks on the hypocrisy, false promises and hollow claims of the BJP.
The Grand Alliance cobbled together by the Congress has held firm in spite of the weaknesses of the national party, thanks to the determination of the Left parties not to allow a division of votes. The Congress leaders had lost touch with the masses and it is because of the excesses of the BJP that the party has gained some ground now. But there is no reason to assume that the anti-BJP sentiment will automatically turn into votes unless the Grand Alliance puts in a consistent, united, and dedicated effort till the final hour. Their top State leaders have been embroiled in unseemly turf wars, with Gaurav Gogoi also entering the fray allegedly with the aim of joining State politics in the future. Leaders deputed by the Congress high command have tried hard to keep things going, but their efforts have been hampered due to their ignorance of the specifics of the situation.
The Congress is now mounting a campaign to highlight the follies and failures of the BJP. Its manifesto speaks to the people’s concerns though there are a few unfortunate concessions to the BJP’s populist religious narrative. It has rightly stuck to a clear stand on the CAA. In a few constituencies, perhaps because of infighting or loss of base, it has put up weak candidates. It has the solid support of Muslims in many constituencies and is gaining some ground in the tea garden regions where it was dislodged earlier by the BJP. The BJP’s fear of offending big capital by raising wages in these regions has provoked anger and mistrust among large numbers of the tea-garden workers.
The Left parties have to be content with the few seats they have been offered because of their awareness of the much bigger threat posed by the resumption of BJP rule.
The Congress’s alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is the greatest gamble it has taken considering the long-standing feud between the two parties for immigrant Muslim votes. But in view of the creeping fear among Muslims about the intentions of the BJP, the alliance may well pay dividends. That is precisely why the BJP keeps harping on the alleged threat to the Hindu Assamese and the tribals and projects AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal as the future Chief Minister of Assam to drive the indigenous peoples into panic. But this strategy seems to have had only limited success. Mr. Ajmal is an orthodox Maulana but has enough sense not to indulge in anti-Assamese or anti-Hindu fusillades.
Dividing anti-BJP votes
Both the regional parties, the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal, have said that the BJP is a menace to democracy and will change the identity of the indigenous people; yet, surprisingly, both of them have kept their distance from the Congress saying that all the national parties have aims antithetical to regional interests. The AJP has in its fold some stalwarts who may prefer the BJP to the Congress if the question of a post-poll alliance arises at all.
Activist Akhil Gogoi’s detention hampered the efforts of his Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti whose members know how to agitate but have no idea how to run an election. They have a following among the poor and marginalised and should have thrown in their lot with the Grand Alliance. Mr. Gogoi stubbornly bargained till the eleventh hour with the Congress demanding that the AIUDF be dropped from the Grand Alliance, an impossible demand from the perspective of the Congress. That they are contesting just a few seats now has unwittingly weakened the Opposition. But the late entry of Bodo People’s Front leader Hagrama Mohilary, now disenchanted with the BJP, might add several seats to the Grand Alliance from the Bodoland Territorial Area District.
The two regional parties may snatch some votes from the Grand Alliance and end up dividing the anti-BJP votes. This would only weaken the prospects of democratic forces.
Hiren Gohain is a scholar and literary critic
