It is vital to assess the performance of incumbent governments, especially those that claim to have ushered in development. Let us take the case of Assam and examine the Sarbananda Sonowal-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s performance on key indicators.
In 2015-16, before the BJP government had taken charge, Assam’s economy clocked the second-highest growth rate at 15.67%, and its per capita income was growing at 13.02%. A credible dialogue process was also initiated and taken forward over the 15 years of Tarun Gogoi-led Congress rule, which ushered in peace. In May 2016, the BJP assumed power and since then, the growth story has petered out and distress reigns supreme.
Alarming numbers
Assam’s economy had lost steam much before the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the State. In 2019-20, the economy grew at 6.30% and per capita income grew at a measly 3.46%. Within four years, Assam had gone from being ranked 2nd and 3rd on these counts to 20th and 26th respectively. Where Assam ranked highly was inflation — the fourth highest in the country.
A responsive government would have reacted to provide relief to those hurting from the loss of incomes and price rise. But that is not what the BJP government did. Taking a cue from the Narendra Modi-led Central government, the State raised Value Added Tax (VAT) on petrol and diesel in the middle of the pandemic. The price of LPG cylinders in Guwahati has risen by nearly ₹300 in the past ten months. Struggling with falling revenues, the government chose to burden the common people of Assam.
Development work has suffered since the BJP-led Central government scrapped the special category status for States, affecting Assam and other northeastern States. The 2020-21 Assam budget also saw massive cuts in several important departments like agriculture, rural development, education, healthcare, and flood control. The BJP promised a ‘double-engine’ government. Instead, Dispur and Delhi demolished the double-digit development.
The State is also facing a job crisis. The youth unemployment rate in urban areas for the January-March 2020 quarter was 29.3%. Only five years ago, the BJP had emphatically promised 25 lakh jobs. Earlier this year, it admitted that only 80,000 government jobs were provided. In contrast, the unemployment rate in April 2016, the last complete month when the Congress governed Assam, was 0.7%. This had increased to 7.6% by December 2020. Further, rapid development and robust job creation by the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government had complemented its efforts towards ending insurgency. Between 2000 and 2015, major incidents of terrorism fell by 94%.
Years of progress has been undone in the past five years. The NITI Aayog’s Sustainable Development Goal Index points to Assam’s worsening state on the poverty index. The National Family Health Survey-5 also supports these findings. The prevalence of malnutrition and anaemia has risen in the population. The proportion of children aged 6-59 months who are anaemic nearly doubled; the proportion of women who are anaemic increased by over 40%.
In its manifesto, the BJP has promised a “brighter future” for Assam’s children. It ignores how it presided over a rise in drop-out rates in secondary schools. Incidences of crime against children more than doubled, increasing by 133% between 2015 and 2019.
Data from the National Crime Records Bureau suggests a complete breakdown of law and order in the State. Comparing the rate of crime, Assam leads other States in crimes against women, violent crimes, kidnapping and abduction of women, and procuration of minor girls.
Assam’s people bear the brunt of floods and the State has a multitude of issues to resolve. Even then, the BJP government’s campaign has communal and xenophobic overtones that seek to divide and pit one person against the other. How the BJP has failed Assam is best highlighted by its promise to review the National Register of Citizens (NRC), a process the party oversaw. The BJP plays up the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act in West Bengal, but refuses to discuss its implementation in Assam, which has seen huge protests against the law.
Overall, the BJP’s five years in Assam have reversed economic growth in tangible and measurable ways. But it is the damage and division that it has unleashed in this sensitive, diverse State, which has caused immeasurable harm to the harmonious and inclusive development of Assam.
Rajeev Gowda is Chairman and Akash Satyawali is National Coordinator at the Research Department, All India Congress Committee
