When United States President Barack Obama arrives in China on Monday, a key issue at the heart of the many areas of engagement between the two countries, from climate change and trade to North Korea, is what leadership role Beijing sees for itself on the global stage, analysts say.
Two decades ago, China’s relationship with the U.S. was mainly focused on bilateral ties, Taiwan, and human rights. But next week, top of the agenda for Mr. Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao are a range of issues that will have an impact on the world, from restructuring the world’s financial architecture to Iran’s nuclear programme. This change has brought with it a deep level of engagement and interdependence never before seen in ties between the two countries. But it has also brought with it a growing list of tensions.
“China is deeply embedded in every domestic, regional, and global issue a U.S. president has to deal with, which is a big change in China-U.S. relations,” says David Shambaugh, a professor of international relations at George Washington University and a China scholar. “The question of what role China sees for itself in global matters is a key issue [in Sino-U.S. ties]. It is right for the U.S. to be pushing China to be more involved, but American expectations are a source of potential discord.”
Despite Beijing’s obvious growing influence, China’s leaders continue to maintain publicly that China is a developing country focused on its own progress and committed to “non-interference” in the internal affairs of others. But there is a growing chorus of voices, both domestically and from abroad, calling on Beijing to take a more proactive role in world affairs. The U.S. is in some sense leading the call, asking China to fulfil its “responsible stakeholder” role and shoulder more responsibilities with regard to North Korea, Iran, and Afghanistan, and also in rebalancing world trade.
China’s reluctance, and ambivalence, to answer the call has in some ways come to define the two countries’ ties, and their problems. “China thinks the U.S. expects too much,” says Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. “China does not see itself as a global power but as a regional power. Beijing is reluctant to get involved and take more responsibility, and sees it more as a gradual process.”
The tension between American expectations and Chinese policy is most evident in growing discord on trade issues and demands that China should appreciate its yuan currency. Washington says the yuan is being undervalued by Beijing to support its exporters. But its policy has also contributed to the massive trade gap between the two countries, which reached $266 billion last year, and is seen by many as being inextricably linked to the global imbalances that precipitated the financial crisis. Offering a possible olive branch, China’s central bank on Wednesday hinted it might be willing to consider re-evaluating the yuan, although China is expected to offer no such commitment next week.
More trade tensions surfaced in the past week in an increasingly bitter tit-for-tat on import duties. Last week, Washington gave the green light to what is the biggest ever trade action the U.S. has initiated against China, the imposition of preliminary anti-dumping duties on an estimated $2.6 billion worth of Chinese oil-well pipes. The Chinese government responded by accusing Washington of “abusive protectionism.” It has now launched anti-dumping probes of its own on American cars.
The trade spat has led to low expectations in Beijing ahead of next week’s visit. Most analysts here do not expect any breakthroughs of significance, either in trade or on climate change, although the two countries are expected to announce greater co-operation in clean energy. Another reason for the low expectations is that Mr. Obama inherits an already solid and deeply institutionalised relationship bequeathed to him by his predecessor, and most analysts expect a continuity of many of the Bush administration’s policies.
Professor Yan of Tsinghua University echoes the feeling among many analysts in Beijing in his measured appraisal of where things stand between the U.S. and China. “There is a difference between having an important relationship and close relationship,” he says. “This is no doubt this is the most important bilateral relationship for the two countries, and for the world, but it’s still far from being a close relationship.” Chinese analysts often point to the arms embargo the U.S. still has on China as a reminder of where things stand. “Strategic partners do not place arms embargoes on each other,” Mr. Yan observes. “The way we see it, we may not be enemies, but we’re certainly not friends.”
