“Development” is a word that one encounters frequently across poll-bound Bihar, with people across caste lines using it to explain their political preferences. However, this shouldn’t make one feel that this election is all about roads, power and education. For, different castes cite “development” — a word frequently used without elaboration in today’s political discourse — to explain divergent political choices. And they link it not just to physical infrastructure but also to caste-based social welfare.
Ask upper caste people and those living in urban areas, and they will call Prime Minister Narendra Modi their “development icon”, though they agree that Nitish Kumar has been a good Chief Minister. They cite Mr. Modi’s pitch for investment, schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana and his foreign policy initiatives as his strength. For them, it was in alliance with the BJP, their favoured party, that Mr. Kumar became the sushasan babu (good governance man).
Step out into the countryside and walk into areas inhabited by those from the lower castes and Muslims and the discourse becomes more complex. Except Muslims, few challenge Mr. Modi’s performance at the Centre, with many, even in the villages, seeing his foreign visits favourably. However, it is Mr. Kumar who emerges as a regional development icon across rural Bihar, with voices of support even in urban centres. People cite the roads he built, the scholarships he gave and his better management of the law and order situation as compared to the performance of his predecessors, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), as the reason for his popularity.
The Manjhi factor Some Mahadalit Musahars this correspondent met around Gaya, however, weren’t impressed with Mr. Kumar; the treatment that was meted out to Jitan Ram Manjhi, a leader from their own caste, still rankled. After a fallout with Mr. Kumar, Mr. Manjhi is with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Interestingly, there isn’t much fear of land acquisition after the now-diluted NDA move to promote industry, suggesting that rural aspirations are no longer necessarily agrarian. Villagers inclined to support the BJP consider it necessary to usher in industry while Muslims and Yadavs often dub land acquisition as “anti-farmer”. In other words people see issues in line with their political positions, which are often caste-based. Muslims praise Mr. Kumar on the development front but attack Mr. Modi, accusing him of preferring slogans over real work. Significantly, Muslims don’t mention secularism explicitly, perhaps wanting to be seen articulating their preference along governance lines rather than based on community concerns.
Caste impact Caste and community seem to explain the political divisions better than “development”, a nebulous term both sides evoke. Here, the grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD and Congress has a slight edge. To simplify the equation, the grand alliance claims the support of the Muslims (16.9 per cent of Bihar’s population), the Yadavs (about 14 per cent) and the Kurmis (3.5 per cent), which adds up to a possible support from 34 to 35 per cent of the population (figures as per the 1931 caste census).
The BJP has a larger social coalition than ever before, but this alone may not be enough. The upper castes — firmly behind the BJP in Bihar — were 13.6 per cent of the State’s population. To add to its upper caste support, it can also claim the support of Banias — who come under Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in Bihar — who are believed to number about 5 to 6 per cent as a whole.
The BJP has also made crucial inroads into the Scheduled Castes as a result of its alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan and Mr. Manjhi. Dalits (SCs) number around 16 per cent of the State’s population, of which the Dusadhs (Paswans) are 31 per cent — about five-per cent of the State’s population. The Musahars, the caste of Mr. Manjhi, are the third-largest Dalit caste in the state, which means they may also number about four per cent of the State’s population. Add to this the four per cent population of the Kushwahas, whose leader Upendra Kushwaha is part of the NDA, and the NDA would score around 32 per cent in terms of caste support.
However, there is a catch here. The Muslims, the Yadavs and the Kurmis have a two-decade history of voting as solid blocs, even if the Yadavs and the Kurmis voted against each other before the RJD and JD(U) joined hands. In the case of the NDA, only the upper castes, Banias and Paswans seem to have established traditions of voting as a block. The autonomous Musahar and Kushwaha vote is a more recent phenomenon and may or may not converge behind the NDA across Bihar. Thus, in terms of raw caste numbers, the grand alliance is somewhat ahead. However, there are caveats. A large part of the Muslim population is concentrated in the Seemanchal region, which has only 25 seats, which means there are many areas where Muslims aren’t too numerous. This is likely to help the BJP, as the effective strength of Muslim votes goes down.
Some feel that the fact that the Congress is fighting on 41 seats gives the BJP a chance on these seats, despite some Congress candidates being defectors from other parties.
The BJP also hopes that large chunks of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) — a category created by Mr. Kumar — will shift towards it out of a fear of a ‘Yadav dominance’ if Mr. Prasad makes a return. This large, floating chunk explains why Mr. Prasad wants to consolidate the Backward Class-vote and the BJP wants people to see the fight as one between Mr. Modi and Mr. Prasad, who, they claim, will “remote control” Mr. Kumar. In fact, the fluid EBCs, in some ways, hold the key to the outcome of this election. They aren’t a bloc yet and behave like small, individual groups. This makes their behaviour difficult to fathom. The BJP stands a chance of nullifying the grand alliance’s core advantage if the EBCs vote for it in large numbers out of a “fear” of Yadav dominance, something BJP leaders insist is a hidden factor. If they split equally or veer towards Mr. Kumar, his alliance holds an edge over the NDA.
Nitish popular among EBCs The fact remains that Mr. Kumar’s personal image is good among the EBCs, and it was he who carved out this category. This dissuades the observer from jumping to any quick conclusion as to how the EBC vote will split.
Aware that Mr. Kumar is popular, the BJP has been focusing on Mr. Prasad’s poor image as an administrator in non-Yadav circles. It claims Mr. Prasad is pulling the grand alliance down. Many upper castes also say that Mr. Kumar would have been better off alone. But Mr. Kumar’s core Kurmi vote is so insignificant that he had little choice but to ally with the RJD, which brings in a strong Yadav chunk.
But where do these intricate caste details leave “development” as a slogan?
Significantly, “development” comes laced with caste in Bihar, if one analyses the responses of voters. Many among Backward Classes see social welfare schemes and affirmative action policies as a means to improve their material conditions. This social aspect is perhaps as crucial to the discourse of “development” as physical infrastructure. Mr. Kumar hopes his schemes will make people choose him, while the BJP — with no regional leader strong enough to match Mr. Kumar — wants to link the development discourse to Mr. Modi, who is still popular in Bihar.
The BJP is looking at the possibility of young voters voting across caste lines for Mr. Modi. One saw this happening at a village in Khagaria, where young voters who had lived in Maharashtra and Gujarat saw the BJP as more in sync with the times than the grand alliance. If this emerges as a new trend in Bihar politics, the BJP may still spring a surprise.
However, Mr. Kumar’s brand value may attract sections of this segment too. In particular, Muslim and Yadav youth are more likely to choose the grand alliance. With women voting more, some feel Mr. Kumar has an advantage because of his schemes. BJP leaders claim male migration could be a cause and insist migrants’ families would support them. They also claim this may be because liquor shops have “sprung up” under Mr. Kumar and women may be turning out in greater numbers to oppose this. The fact that both Mr. Kumar — the regional “development” icon — and Mr. Modi are popular complicates the contest. While it is true that a State election is more about the CM-candidate, it is the BJP’s focus on development that actually keeps it afloat. For, the party has no regional match for Mr. Kumar, and announcing a candidate may set off infighting within its ranks.
However, the BJP has, in the last few days, subtly moved from a campaign exclusively focused on the Prime Minister to one where regional leaders are also adorning the posters. BJP leaders dismiss reports that this betrays jitters within the saffron party. They also assert that the Prime Minister will hold as many rallies as initially planned, viz., 22, rejecting buzz that some rallies were cancelled.
The grand alliance’s USP is its caste coalition and Mr. Kumar’s credibility. And the BJP — which has Brand Modi and its own caste combine to bank on — is hoping Mr. Prasad’s presence in the grand alliance will damage Brand Nitish.
vikas.pathak@thehindu.co.in
