The German elections are known to be a predictable exercise largely dominated by the Conservatives. But this time, even after the preliminary results are out, there is no clarity about which party would form the coalition and who would succeed Angela Merkel, who had announced her retirement well before the polls. There are now two wannabe Chancellors and two kingmakers, and coalition talks are expected to drag on. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) took a narrow lead with 25.7% of the vote, followed by the bloc led by Ms. Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), with 24.1%, their lowest vote share. The Greens won 14.8%, their best performance in a national poll, while the liberal, pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) took 11.5%. Olaf Scholz, who put the trailing Socialists in the lead, has claimed victory and shown interest in working with the Greens. Armin Laschet, the Conservative leader, has also promised to put “every effort” to ensure a CDU-led government. That leaves the Greens and the Liberals as kingmakers. Since the Socialists and the Conservatives, currently coalition partners in the Merkel government, will not be together again, the next government is set to be a three-way coalition.
Over the last 16 years, Ms. Merkel has been the undisputed face of the CDU and one of Germany’s most popular leaders. Her decision to retire has left a vacuum both in the CDU leadership and in German politics. Under the uncharismatic conservative Armin Laschet , the CDU, which ruled 52 of the 72 post-war years of Germany, looked like a pale shadow of itself, while Mr. Scholz, who belongs to the pro-business sections of the Social Democrats, led a campaign focused on social justice, by promising to increase the minimum wage, build affordable houses and raise taxes on the rich. This campaign allowed the Social Democrats to eat into the traditional vote base of the Conservatives. The growing awareness of climate politics led to the rapid and visible rise of the Greens. Mr. Scholz will now seek to bring together the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals, the so-called ‘traffic light’ coalition that will have 416 seats, well beyond the 368 needed for majority. But a lot would depend on coalition talks and reaching common ground, as the CDU has also thrown its hat into the ring. When Ms. Merkel took over the reins of Germany in 2005, Europe’s largest economy was stalled with high unemployment. She overcame crises, strengthening Germany’s economic prowess and transforming its role in Europe. But she also saw German politics getting fragmented and the rise of the neo-Nazi AfD, which got a 10.3% vote share in Sunday’s poll. Whoever succeeds Ms. Merkel has their task cut out to offer stable governance, address growing social disquiet and strengthen the EU. And a bigger challenge is to take up this ambitious agenda while leading a three-way coalition.
