The results of bypolls in three Lok Sabha seats and 29 Assembly seats across 13 States and one Union Territory are a mixed bag for the BJP and the Congress . The ruling party in West Bengal, the TMC, got a resounding endorsement as it won huge victories in four Assembly seats, while the TRS, despite using all levers of power in Telangana, faced a defeat in the lone Assembly seat. The BJP took a considerable beating in Himachal Pradesh, where it rules, as it lost a Lok Sabha seat and three Assembly seats to the Congress; but it made gains in Madhya Pradesh, where it displaced the Congress in two Assembly seats while retaining a Lok Sabha seat and an Assembly seat. In Assam, it won all five Assembly seats along with a regional ally, displacing the Congress in one. The victory in the Huzurabad Assembly segment in Telangana may be the most encouraging for the BJP, as it defeated the ruling TRS that had left no stone unturned to retain the seat. The Congress defeat in the seat was so decisive that the outcome might point to a definitive turn in State politics. In Karnataka, the BJP faced a setback in the home district of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.
Reading too much into bypoll results is fraught with risks, but some broad points are noteworthy. Taken together, the results show that the Opposition is alive and kicking, but still devoid of a national narrative, programme or leadership. This set of byelections may not signal any consequential change in the national mood — H.P., which gave a drubbing to the BJP, has only four Lok Sabha seats, while in Bihar, BJP ally, the JD(U), retained both Assembly seats. The polls show that leadership at the State-level matters, and this may be bad news for the BJP that has increasingly centralised power and sought to undermine strong regional leaders. In Karnataka, B.S. Yediyurappa’s removal as CM appears to have come with a cost; in Assam, and other northeastern States, the imprint of Himanta Biswa Sarma is unmistakable in the impressive performance of the BJP; in Madhya Pradesh the credit for the party’s victories goes to CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan; and in Rajasthan the extent of its defeat can be attributed to the lack of regional leadership. The massive scale of the TMC’s performance in West Bengal and the corresponding rout of the BJP prove the former’s complete grip over the State, and the latter’s continuing struggle to understand it. The party was tamed in the Assembly election earlier this year, and its agenda and approach continue to be distant from the thinking of the Bengali. As for the Congress, what matter more are the defeats in M.P. and Telangana, and not the victories in H.P. and Rajasthan.
