Syed Ali Shah Geelani was more an Islamist than a Kashmiri nationalist, and his demise at the age of 92 brings down the curtain on a phase of separatist politics in the Valley. He represented a strident pro-Pakistan stream of Kashmiri separatism . Geelani inspired armed rebellion and remained a steadfast barrier for any potential political dialogue between New Delhi and Kashmir separatists. He opposed a settlement of the Kashmir question that the former dictator of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, had helped formulate. Geelani’s recalcitrance only hardened with age, but his death did not stir any public outpouring of Kashmir grievance even when heavy policing and communication restrictions in the Valley are accounted for. But there can be no denial of the fact that people have grown wary of the relentless cycle of conflict. Geelani’s brand of politics was losing mass support even before the Indian crackdown on separatists acquired a new aggressive edge after the Pulwama suicide attack in February 2019. The Narendra Modi government abandoned negotiations in Kashmir, not only with separatists but even with mainstream political parties, save a half-hearted initiative in June this year. After the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir was stripped of its autonomy and reorganised into two Union Territories in August 2019, the decline of separatists including Geelani was evident.
The volatile situation in Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s euphoria about the return to power of the Taliban in Kabul will have an impact on the situation in Kashmir. The Taliban have said they would ‘raise voice for Kashmir Muslims’ and Pakistan has always maintained that peace in Afghanistan is connected to a resolution in Kashmir. Global Islamists are exulting over the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. With Pakistan emerging as a key influencer in Kabul, the U.S. will have to seek new terms of engagement with it. New Delhi has been in self-congratulatory mode over Kashmir. Far from secession, even autonomy questions have been rendered irrelevant in conversations on Kashmir, which now revolve around restoration of its full statehood. However, the relative calm and silence in the Valley should not be mistaken for acquiescence. Political parties have expressed frustration over the fact that the June dialogue between them and Mr. Modi was aimless and not followed through. The political dialogue with mainstream parties must be carried ahead in full earnest. The chaos in Afghanistan presents challenges for India, especially in Kashmir, which need wider deliberations with the international community. But Geelani’s death could be an opportunity to set the stage for new conversations with various Kashmiri outfits. The Government must use this moment to initiate a comprehensive dialogue to find a way forward for a future of the people of Kashmir as an integral part of India.