Elections to the Delhi Assembly have always attracted disproportionate national-level attention. It is voting today, February 7, for the second time in a little more than a year. The elections in December 2013 resulted in a hung Assembly. A government formed by the then-fledgling Aam Aadmi Party, with the support of the Congress that was pushed to the third slot after being in power for three consecutive terms, lasted just 49 days. Rapid turns in Delhi politics since the announcement of fresh elections have brought to the fore several questions that have lingered since the parliamentary victory of the BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi. These relate to the sustainability of Mr. Modi’s centralised model of Hindutva politics in a diverse polity such as India’s, the possibility and the nature of an alternative to it, and the future of the Congress.
The central figure in the Delhi campaign is AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, who transformed a loosely knit anti-corruption movement that had social activist Anna Hazare as its mascot, into a thriving political movement and party. Today it appears to be a credible challenger to the Modi juggernaut. The party’s impressive revival after its rout in the parliamentary elections of May 2014 has put the BJP on the back foot and made Delhi the first real contest for Prime Minister Modi. The BJP had an easy ride in the 2014 rounds of Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand, sustaining a certain perception of Mr. Modi being unbeatable. Halfway into the campaign in Delhi, the BJP declared its newly inducted member and former police officer Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate, restoring a practice it had abandoned since Mr. Modi became its supreme leader. But Ms. Bedi’s arrival on the scene seems to have only added to the BJP’s troubles — and she has failed to provide Mr. Modi an alibi to distance himself from a possible failure. If the BJP falls short of a majority, that will expose Mr. Modi’s vulnerability, force him to hold back on his unilateral, ongoing overhaul of the party, and put him at a disadvantage ahead of the Assembly election in the crucial State of Bihar in November. Inversely, a BJP victory will keep it on the winning trail, and tighten Mr. Modi’s personal grip on the BJP and politics in general. Indeed, an AAP victory could hold out the prospect of an alternative to Mr. Modi. The AAP could seek to expand outside Delhi, but at the very least it will stand out as a model where an unconventional leader with some credibility galvanised public opinion for change. In the midst of all this, the Congress commands limited space in Delhi. Yet, these elections hold significant lessons, and prospects, for its revival bid too.
