A leader is as good as the party he leads. But in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party found the performance of its chief ministerial candidates at variance with that of the rest of the party. Vijay Rupani, the incumbent Chief Minister, won his Rajkot West seat comfortably, even as the BJP conceded ground to the Congress in Gujarat. Prem Kumar Dhumal lost in Sujanpur, but the BJP won big in Himachal Pradesh to wrest power from the Congress. After the poor showing in Gujarat, the re-nomination of Mr. Rupani as the legislature party leader was not automatic; there were other contenders, including his deputy, Nitin Patel. The BJP was under some pressure to send a positive signal to the Patidar community, large sections of which appeared to have shifted their allegiance to the Congress. But the party settled for another term for Mr. Rupani, not wanting to pin the blame for the below par performance on him. After all, the campaign had been led from the front by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. Ignoring Mr. Rupani’s claim would only have meant laying the groundwork for further disaffection within the party. In Himachal Pradesh, the situation was, in many ways, very different. Despite losing his seat, Mr. Dhumal was not out of contention for the post of Chief Minister till the very end, with many newly elected members of the legislature offering to vacate their seats for him. But while recognising that Mr. Dhumal did indeed boost its chances in several seats, the BJP opted for five-time MLA Jairam Thakur as the new Chief Minister . Evidently, the reasoning was that rewarding Mr. Dhumal would be interpreted by detractors as a show of disrespect to the verdict of the people in his constituency. Also, the BJP’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, is known to be opposed to rewarding with ministerial posts those who have lost an election. That Mr. Thakur is a former pracharak would only have made the RSS bring greater force to bear upon the BJP in this regard.
While the choice of Mr. Rupani is a vote for continuity, it is not an endorsement of everything that he did in the short period he has been in power in Gujarat. To rule in Mr. Modi’s name is one thing, but to not be a pro-active agent in governance is quite another. Mr. Rupani will continue to be on test under the keen eyes of the Modi-Shah combine. The BJP’s rural backing seems to have shrunk and the party depended heavily on its core support base of traders and the urban middle class to win the election. In Himachal, Mr. Thakur will likely have a freer hand, but he too will be under watch. Unless he can help his party beat the incumbency disadvantage, Mr. Thakur will not be seen as having done his job. Retaining power is not as easy as re-gaining power.
