The departure of U.S. National Security Advisor (NSA) John Bolton from office, after he was forced to leave by President Donald Trump, won’t evoke much sadness in most world capitals. Mr. Bolton’s term in office was marked by his ultra-hawkish positions; he pursued hostilities with Iran, sanctions with Russia, brinkmanship on trade with China, opposed talks on Afghanistan, and with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and pushed for regime change in Venezuela. A former U.S. envoy to the United Nations, Mr. Bolton inflicted the greatest damage on multilateral institutions and agreements, as he advocated the U.S.’s exit from the Human Rights Council and UNESCO, presided over the cancellation of the multi-party nuclear deal with Iran, and informed Moscow that the U.S. was pulling out of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. His final act, one that is regarded with relief in India, was to ensure that the U.S. deal with the Pakistan-backed Taliban was scuttled. The relief, however, may be temporary, given that Mr. Trump has publicly criticised his outgoing NSA, and may reverse many of the positions the U.S. had taken with Mr. Bolton at the helm. The first such reversal is an offer to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani without any preconditions on the sidelines of the UNGA session this month made by U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.
While New Delhi must continue to keep a keen eye on all the changes in the White House and Cabinet, it is clear that investing too much in any one adviser, or expecting consistency in American policy as a result, would be a folly. Since he assumed office in 2017, Mr. Trump has run a revolving door for recruitments and retrenchments, and is now on his fourth NSA, third Secretary of Defense and second Secretary of State. India would do well to not allow its bilateral relationship with the U.S. or other relationships to be determined by such a fluid dynamic. A case in point is ties with Iran, where New Delhi may have been better off not acceding to the tough Bolton line, and instead, like China, Russia, Iraq and Turkey, keeping its own counsel on the issue of oil sanctions. On the bilateral front, India must build its strategic and economic relationship with the U.S. with a keener eye on the transactional thinking that now prevails in Washington. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to the U.S. this month, with a plan to meet the U.S. President, it may be best to keep in mind the words of Mr. Pompeo, a contender for the NSA position; asked about the impact of Mr. Bolton’s exit on U.S. foreign policy, he said the only person who determines who works for Mr. Trump, and what that means for the policy of the U.S., is Mr. Trump himself.
Published - September 13, 2019 12:05 am IST
