Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon’s declaration that she would >block the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union is an indication of the >political and constitutional crisis looming over London after the >June 23 referendum . Scots overwhelmingly voted to Remain, while Brexiteers won the composite U.K. vote by a 52-48 per cent majority. This means that if the U.K. leadership triggers Article 50 for an eventual exit from the EU, Scotland, despite its public opinion being largely in favour of staying in, will also be out of the club. The Scottish vote in favour of remaining is hardly surprising. Scotland has a positive view of the EU, unlike England and Wales. In the >2014 Scottish independence referendum , campaigners had repeatedly warned that a decision to leave the U.K. would be a decision to leave the EU as well. Young people value the European labour market for employment. Ever dissatisfied with English domination in the U.K., Scots see themselves as part of the European project. Therefore, the overwhelming anxiety about the Brexit reality. This explains Ms. Sturgeon’s pledge to block the U.K.’s exit.
However, beyond the rhetoric, her party doesn’t have the authority to override Westminster — even if Holyrood passes a resolution against Brexit, London could dismiss it. But such a situation could yield a bitter >political and constitutional crisis . The U.K. is not just another “country” where provinces blindly follow the centre’s diktats. It is a confederation of four nations with competing histories and where regional sensibilities are of great significance. Also, EU laws are incorporated directly into the devolution statutes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Scottish Act of 1998 clearly states that acts of the Scottish Parliament that are not compatible with EU legislation are “not law”. So if the U.K. leaves the EU, these laws would have to be repealed and replaced with new ones. That could certainly put Scotland and London on a collision course. Secondly, Scottish leaders are keenly aware of the local sentiment in support of the EU. Recent polls suggest that the public mood in Scotland is already swinging in favour of leaving the U.K. If 55 per cent of Scots voted for their country continuing in the U.K. in the 2014 referendum, an opinion poll shows that 52 per cent now support Scottexit. Ms. Sturgeon has already said that another independence referendum is >“ highly likely ”. The question is whether the U.K. leadership will allow that to happen. It would certainly be a risky move. If Scotland gets another independence vote, calls for Northern Ireland to be merged with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, could gain momentum. In Northern Ireland, 56 per cent had supported Remain. Yet, the British leadership may not have many options but to take these risks if they want to ensure a smooth exit from the EU.
