A deadly crackdown by the Army on the anti-government Red Shirts may have cleared Bangkok of protesters but a long season of political discontent, unrest, and conflict is in store for Thailand. Some of that was foreshadowed in violence that gripped the capital and swiftly spread to parts of the hinterland following the Army action. The brutal end to the 45-day-long stand-off, in which protesters were demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the holding of fresh elections, will fuel anger and bitterness among those who think the present government took office by illegitimate means. It will increase the political polarisation between the anti-Abhisit and pro-government forces. The Red Shirts will not give up efforts to dislodge the government; and the government will forcefully resist such attempts. The forecast need not have been so gloomy because there were at least two opportunities for ending the impasse. Unfortunately, both sides failed to seize them. More than 60 people died in clashes between the Red Shirts and security forces during the two major bouts of violence in recent weeks. Many of them would have been alive today had it not been for the bull-headed rejection by the Red Shirts of Prime Minister Abhisit's offer to hold an election in November, a year ahead of schedule. The protesters first wanted the government to hold a senior member of the cabinet accountable for the first round of violence in April. A second round erupted in mid-May. But an end to the crisis seemed possible even three days earlier when the Red Shirt leadership offered talks. Clearly, the hardliners in both camps worked against a compromise.
The Thai government blames Thaksin Shinawatra, the Prime Minister who was deposed in a 2006 coup and now lives abroad in self-exile, for bankrolling the protests. It holds him responsible for the crisis and the violence. Sections of the Red Shirts are allied to the fugitive leader who they feel was wrongfully ousted, but there is also no escaping the fact that the protests have symbolised a deeper discontent. Most of the people at the protest campsite in Bangkok came from the economically backward and neglected rural areas that want a say in how the country should be governed. No road map for national reconciliation can succeed unless its takes into account their demand for a democracy that empowers the entire nation, and not just a ruling elite backed by the military and the royalists. The still unfolding crisis offers crucial lessons in politics and governance for the region and beyond, and warns of the consequences of state failure to address inequity and deprivation.
