As one of India’s relatively younger States that is home to one of its largest tribal populations, and a supplier of much of the country’s mineral resources, but with nearly a quarter of its populace poverty-stricken, Jharkhand’s significance needs no elaboration. With the Assembly elections in two phases, on November 13 and 20, the battle lines are clearly drawn between the two coalitions — the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led INDIA bloc and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA. For a State that has seen frequent changes in coalitions and leadership, the last two tenures, that of the BJP (2014-19) and of the JMM-led coalition (2019-24), have been relatively stable. Chief Minister Hemant Soren managed to weather a tempest after having to resign over his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate and regaining his post after his bail. In the 2024 general election, his arrest by the Centre was seen by tribals as being vindictive, which helped the JMM and its ally, the Congress, to win all five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe candidates, among the 14 in the State. But the BJP and its ally, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), still managed to get 47.2% of the vote against the INDIA bloc’s 39.62%, suggesting a clear tribal versus non-tribal divide — Adivasis form 26.21% of Jharkhand’s population.
By firming up its alliance with the AJSU, the BJP expects better Assembly poll results than what transpired in 2019 when the two contested separately. If candidate announcements and seat sharing are any indication, the BJP-led alliance has shown greater cohesion than the INDIA bloc in which the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the CPI(ML)-Liberation have shown some discontent over seat allocations. On the narrative front, the Hemant Soren-led INDIA bloc is seeking to consolidate its tribal support base, while yearning for the affirmation of other voters for the welfare schemes its government has implemented. The Maiya Samman Yojana, a cash transfer scheme for women, is quite popular, but it remains to be seen whether it will win votes for the alliance instead of plaudits alone. The BJP is aware of the divide and has sought to frame a problematic narrative of “infiltrators” — a dog whistle for Muslims — gaining benefits at the expense of tribals besides fielding defectors from the JMM such as former Chief Minister Champai Soren to undercut the JMM’s support base. Only the results will tell whether Hemant Soren’s plea to voters to see through this divisive ploy is successful, but mere lip service without strong organisational and resourceful efforts by the INDIA bloc to counter the BJP-led coalition’s mobilisation in Jharkhand will be futile in its effort to retain power.
Published - October 30, 2024 12:20 am IST