Positives changes on the cards in Nigeria

Elections were transparent and fair, and Boko Haram is on the run, but formidable challenges await the new President

April 04, 2015 02:51 am | Updated 02:51 am IST

Mahesh Sachdev

Mahesh Sachdev

Up until now, elections in Nigeria always invoked two forebodings — about their credibility and their violent aftermath. On both counts, the country’s fifth presidential election held on March 28 proved to be anticlimactic. Not only was the hotly contested election the most transparent and fair in Nigeria’s history, there was also minimal violence in its wake. Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan created a precedent by acknowledging electoral defeat and congratulating his opponent General (retd.) Muhammadu Buhari.

These two were not the only shibboleths broken by the elections. Nigeria’s fractious opposition coalesced to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013, to pose a credible challenge to the formidable nomenklatura-based Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Second, many Nigerians defied the lucre of incumbency (“stomach infrastructure”) meant to perpetuate the status quo. Although cut by deep religious, ethnic and linguistic fault lines, the electorate demonstrated maturity and unanimity to elect a new President to tackle insecurity, corruption, unemployment, power shortage and poor governance — areas where the incumbent administration was perceived to be deficient.

The six-week postponement of the elections and the string of military successes against Boko Haram did not deflect the voters’ perception. Nor were the voters swayed by the shrill attacks the PDP made on Gen. Buhari: on his age (72), his educational qualification, the harshness of his previous 20-month rule as military dictator (1983-85), and his piety for Islam. Gen. Buhari got 15.4 million votes, defeating Mr. Jonathan who got 12.8 million votes. Gen. Buhari got more than 65 per cent of his lead from Kano state alone, while President Jonathan was deeply entrenched in the south and south-east.

Nevertheless, the elections also reflected some serious systemic shortcomings. These ranged from electronic glitches and low voter turnout to rigging and voter intimidation (albeit on a lower scale), as well as the north-south and Muslim-Christian polarisation.

Simultaneously, elections were also held for the National Assembly. There, too, the APC clinched the majority. The next round of elections is on April 12, when the State Governors and members of the local bodies will be elected. The new President is to take over on May 29.

Road ahead

Formidable challenges await the new President of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Although Boko Haram is currently on the run, President Buhari must not underestimate its capacity to bounce back. He should adopt a comprehensive strategy that includes socio-economic measures, and strengthen the armed forces. Although the promised vigorous anti-corruption drive is desperately needed, it must not degenerate into either a witch-hunt or political score-settling.

On the economic front, a sharp decline in crude prices has devastated Nigeria, which depends on oil for 80 per cent of its government revenue and 95 per cent of its exports. Economic growth is expected to plummet to 4.5 per cent in 2015, and the Nigerian Naira has declined by 26 per cent. Unpopular contra-measures such as cutting subsidies, downsizing a bloated bureaucracy, economic reforms, raising taxes and ensuring their compliance will be imperative. Ridding Nigeria of its deeply entrenched socio-economic malaise could be resisted by powerful personalities and lobbies, making any progress arduous. The oil sector, stagnant for the past decade, is primed for revamp. More inclusive economic growth can also open vast pent-up opportunities in services, power generation, manufacturing etc. While Nigeria’s pro-West foreign policy may continue, a Muslim Presidency in Abuja could manifest in closer ties with the Islamic world.

Given the country’s size, large oil production, and its potential under better governance, the coming transition will have an impact beyond Nigeria’s borders. India has a very substantive and cordial engagement with Nigeria, being Nigeria’s largest trading partner and Indians being the largest non-African expatriate community there. More than hundred Indian companies operate in Nigeria with an investment of over $11 billion. Gen. Buhari coming to power is expected to have an overall positive impact on India-Nigeria ties for two reasons. First, Gen. Buhari is familiar with India, having trained at the Defence Staff College, Wellington in 1973. Second, his promised drive against corruption and maladministration , if successful, could provide a more level playing field for India’s entrepreneurs.

(Mahesh Sachdev was India’s High Commissioner to Nigeria (2008-13). He has recently published a book titled Nigeria: A Business Manual. )

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