(The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week by Varghese K. George, senior editor at The Hindu . You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox every Friday.)
The Shiv Sena’s learning as a BJP ally
“...it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal,” Henry Kissinger had said. The same can be said of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), too. There are only odd examples of a party surviving an alliance with the BJP. In fact, the BJP grew swallowing up its allies – the latest example is the Shiv Sena. The Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) were the oldest allies of the BJP. The Sena used to be the bigger brother in the alliance until 2014, when the BJP won more seats. In 2019, after the Sena-BJP alliance won the Assembly election for a second consecutive term, Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray wanted the post of Chief Minister for his party for half of the five-year term. That demand denied, he made an alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, and became the CM. The BJP encouraged Sena MLAs to rebel, and a majority of them has now walked away to make a government led by Eknath Shinde, in alliance with the BJP.
The next in line could be the JD(U) in Bihar, which has already sensed the danger, and its leader and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is struggling to keep the party alive as long as possible. In most States where it is dominant today, the BJP was a junior partner to an ally at some point – including in U.P., where it had supported Mayawati as Chief Minister in 1995 and 1997. One party that did not allow itself to be smothered by the deadly embrace of the BJP is Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal in Odisha. The BJP and BJD were in coalition, and the former’s attempts to out manoeuvre the BJD have not borne fruit – at least not yet.
The Sena rebels who are now rejoicing in their bounty will soon be gobbled up or exterminated by the BJP. The Thackerays -- Uddhav and son Aditya -- had ambitions not backed by political skills that can match the BJP. If they had read the writing on the wall and played second fiddle to the BJP, they could have stayed on in power for some more time. The Sena-Congress-NCP alliance was not a meeting of minds, and the show of unity was only superfluous, even as the MLAs of the party who cut their teeth in street fights and anti-Muslim tirades struggled to make peace with their party’s new avatar. The Sainiks are caught between their commitment for Hindutva politics and their loyalty towards the Thackeray family. Sonam Saigal captures their mood here.
It will only be a matter of time before the BJP makes the next move, to reclaim its upper hand in Maharashtra. “The concession of the CM’s post to Mr. Shinde is not an act of political altruism, but cold strategy. Having deflected the potential hurt and anger of the Sainiks for now, the BJP will now wait for the best time for its next move. The next episode of the Maharashtra saga will then play out,” our editorial points out.
The crisis in the Sena and the collapse of the government led by Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra raises the question of the potency of provincial politics as a counter to Hindutva. In what conditions can provincialism push back against the BJP and when does it fail? This piece that I wrote in May, 2021 offers some interpretation.
PM’s tightrope walk at G-7
ALT News co-founder Mohammed Zubair being produced by the Delhi Police special cell at the Patiala House Courts in New Delhi. | Photo Credit: MOORTHY RV
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tightrope walk on the international stages continues. Days after he participated in the BRICS Summit alongside Russian and Chinese leaders, Mr. Modi attended the G-7 summit in Germany, where he pledged India’s commitment to free speech and democracy, but stayed away from statements that sought to put Russia and China in the dock. Just as Mr. Modi was pronouncing India’s commitment to democracy, and free speech, the Delhi police arrested Mohammad Zubair, co-founder of the fact-checking website AltNews, on ludicrous charges.
The growing number of Indians who are not in India…
There are some 1.8 crore – 18 million Indians who live abroad, and the number is growing. The largest cohort of them lives in the UAE – one reason that explains the growing bonhomie between the two countries. Saudi Arabia is the second biggest host of Indians; and the U.S. is the third. You are very likely to be surprised to learn which country is the fourth largest host of Indians: it is Pakistan.
Bypolls in three Lok Sabha seats
The outcomes in three Lok Sabha constituencies, one in Punjab and two in Uttar Pradesh, make significant political points, unusual for such routine bypolls, as The Hindu editorial discusses. In U.P., the Samajwadi Party’s ability to fight the BJP is now suspect and the Aam Aadmi Party’s ability to rise as an opponent of the BJP too appears to be a tall order now.
Federalism Tract
Bhojpuri in the Hindutva mix
Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua won the Azamgarh seat, the third Bhojpuri superstar to be a Member of Parliament on a BJP ticket, the others being Ravi Kishan from Gorakhpur and Manoj Tiwari from northeast Delhi. That raises another language question – about counting Bhojpuri as Hindi in the Census. Bhojpuri cultural leaders seek recognition of the language’s individual identity and its inclusion in the Eighth Schedule. With three popular culture stars now being part of the BJP would that dream be nearer to realisation?
Some hard lessons for BJP in Karnataka
The BJP continues to grapple with the mess it created for itself in Karnataka by rewriting school textbooks. Meanwhile, “Kannadiga pride” will be the main plank of the Congress party in the Assembly election in Karnataka next year, according to former Chief Minister and Leader of the Opposition in the Karnataka Assembly, Siddaramaiah. According to him, this move is against the BJP’s effort to indirectly impose Hindi on the State.
GST at five
The GST regime in India completed five years in operation on July 1. It remains a contentious issue between the States and the Centre and threatens Indian federalism in an unprecedented manner. I talked to economist and Congress Data Department chairman Praveen Chakravarty on the various issues involved. “Restoration of trust is the most fundamental challenge, and it is entirely the responsibility of the Centre. It must extend the revenue guarantee, which will be a clear signal of its commitment. In order to reverse the centralising direction of governance, the Centre should consider giving the States powers of direct taxation that they currently have only in agriculture, which is rarely used,” he says.
Can Christians retain their original Scheduled Tribe status?
Jashpur: An elderly voter shows her finger marked with indelible ink as she comes out of a polling station after casting vote for the 2nd phase of Assembly elections, at Kunkuri in Jashpur district of Chhattisgarh. | Photo Credit: PTI
Who is a tribal? We had discussed the question in recent editions of PL. Are tribes people Hindus? The Sangh Parivar says they are. Another question is animating politics in the tribal region of Chhattisgarh and could stir up sentiments in other States too: Can Christians be tribals? The issue of delisting Christian tribals in order to deny them reservation benefits has gained momentum.
