(The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week by Varghese K. George, senior editor at The Hindu. You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox every Friday.)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has hit rough weather – allegations against his close friend and industrialist Gautam Adani have entangled him too; and he is facing global criticism, manifested in a BBC documentary series on him that examines the Gujarat riots of 2002 when he was Chief Minister. This is not the first time Mr. Modi faces serious allegations. The Rafale defence deal, surveillance using the Israeli Pegasus spyware, and demonetisation caused such turmoil in Indian politics that he appeared to be vulnerable. In the end, it did not dent his popularity – at any rate, not enough to undermine his power or grip over the BJP and the government. But, yes, his critics, both in India and abroad, have been emboldened by the Hindenburg Research report on the Adani Group and the BBC documentary series. What does this mean for his political future?
Global finance emperor George Soros thinks, or at least hopes, that India will see an uprising against Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a consequence of the Hindenburg report. Mr. Soros went public with his wish that it will upstage Mr. Modi. The Soros outburst just confirmed for supporters of Mr. Modi, and Government of India, what they have been saying – that there is an international conspiracy to undermine India. Union Minister Smriti Irani was quick to respond with the ‘I told you so’ presser. For decades, Indian politicians have told the people about foreign forces trying to destabilise the country. Partly true and largely propaganda, the trope of a ‘foreign hand’ has always been a source of legitimacy for the Indian establishment. (There is nothing exclusively Indian about that though. American establishment thrives on foreign threats – Communism, Islamism, and now Russia and China. American Democrats go into a seizure talking about how elections in the most advanced country on the planet can be stolen by Russian bots!)
Indian critics of Mr. Modi are broadly two types – the regionalists, who don’t have much of a vision of India, and the liberal Nehruvians, who have a vision for India that is slightly different from the BJP’s. While the regionalists question Mr. Modi, Adani and BBC are not their issues, nor something that their constituencies will comprehend. In fact, most regionalists have their own dealings with the Adani Group and they are not enthusiastic about upsetting the apple cart. Liberal Nehruvians, who are at the forefront of the current campaign against Mr. Modi, have no means to communicate beyond their captive audience. There isn’t even a meeting point between the regionalists and the Nehruvians. I have explained it in this piece on how the success of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s cross-country foot march, Bharat Jodo Yatra, itself has resulted in a stalemate in opposition politics: Read Varghese K. George’s News Analysis on the stalemate after success of Bharat Jodo Yatra
Nehruvian liberals have lost control of the Indian mass media, which is now in the stranglehold of the BJP and the government, generally speaking. (Caveat – regional media largely aligns with the regionalists.) But that is a minor part of the problem. The real problem for the Nehruvians is their inability to evolve a new idiom to communicate with those who are now with the BJP. Just like American Democrats treat the religious rural poor and the working class, Indian elites ridicule Modi followers as irrational fools, and unworthy of any conversation. Meanwhile Modi voters – 37% in 2019, who can win him 55% of the Lok Sabha seats due to their concentration in the upper half of India – have built a rationality of their own. Read this reportage on the ongoing construction of the Shri Ram Temple in Ayodhya: Read Ishita Mishra’s piece about how the Ram Mandir is in the heartland of Hindutva
Based on the support of this 37% Indian voters, Mr. Modi has built a global constituency. His domestic constituency gets stronger in the face of criticism, more so when the opponents are foreigners. It is the politics of vishwas or faith, as political scientist Neelanjan Sircar has pointed out. All criticism of Mr. Modi is labelled anti-India, and those making the criticisms are called anti-national forces. When George Soros speaks out against Mr. Modi, and calls for a regime change in India, his supporters are animated. Far from threatening Mr. Modi, that reinforces him.
Globally, those who thought of Mr. Modi as a free market liberal when he won power in 2014 are now a disappointed lot. India’s economic nationalism under Mr. Modi is resented by the global capitalist class, but they have little choice other than to suck it up and smile. Which they are doing very well. It was not a coincidence that Indian tax authorities acted against the BBC on the same day that Boeing and Airbus and Air India announced new deals. I had explained this thinking behind Hindutva Strategic Doctrine in a separate article that you can see here. Those who are interested in Indian markets will stay aligned with Mr. Modi.
A second category of international players also aligns with Mr. Modi – the strategic community. They are also disappointed that Prime Minister refused to plunge headlong into the U.S. bandwagon, but he has given them enough hope that he is a potential ally in the emerging anti-China constellation, India’s continuing friendship with Russia notwithstanding. India’s military ambition under Mr. Modi provides them a good market and Chinese hostility towards India gives them a good rationale for cooperation.
So international players – the global capitalist and the strategist – continue to stay with Mr. Modi despite their disappointments. Domestically, the challenge that he faces actually reinforces his support base. That is the Big Picture.
Federalism Tract
Dalits among Dravidians
Tamil Nadu Governor R.N. Ravi B. Velankanni Raj | Photo Credit: VELANKANNI RAJ
Dravidian nationalism is often perceived as a monolith, but the Dalits of Tamil Nadu have a different experience. Tamil Nadu Governor R. N. Ravi, who never shies away from donning a political cap, called out Dravidian politics for its failure to ensure social justice for Dalits. According to him, the response of the law enforcement and criminal justice system was “awful” when it came to crimes against the Dalits, and the rate of conviction was only 7% in rape cases in which the survivors were women from the Scheduled Castes.
Holding the Hindus together
This year marks the 200th birth anniversary of Dayanand Saraswati, the founder of Arya Samaj, which was arguably the most consequential and first organised attempt at Hindu unity. Attending an event in Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Maharishi Dayanand was born in an era when false interpretation of the Vedas was used to belittle India and its traditions were being deformed as part of efforts to “crush the ideals, culture and roots” of the nation. In these times, the PM said, Maharishi Dayanand came as a saviour “as he dispelled the notion of any deficiency in the traditions and scriptures of India; he pointed out that their real meaning was forgotten”.
My history versus yours
The ruling BJP’s focus on history rewriting is unmistakable. New research projects and textbooks are meant to restructure the existing framework of history teaching in India. It is not rewriting history, but filling gaps, according to the Union Education Minister. “The government has no intention to rewrite history. But if you ask me, if the ICHR [Indian Council for Historical Research] has taken any project on history, with due respect, I would like to inform this House that yes, it has taken,” Dharmendra Pradhan told the Lok Sabha.
Left and Congress: friends here, foes there
In the Tripura Assembly elections, the Congress and the CPI(M)-led Left Front are in alliance (Triangular in Tripura: The Hindu Editorial on the TIPRA Motha factor in the Assembly polls - The Hindu), but in Kerala both sides were fighting each other hammer and tongs this week. The Left and the Congress were in alliance at the Centre from 2004 to 2008 while both were opponents in Tripura, West Bengal and Kerala. In other States such as Tamil Nadu and Bihar, the Left and the Congress have remained in alliance for very long.
