When I was writing my last Cambridge Letter, as I made clear, I did not know what the result of the UK referendum on AV (the alternative vote) would be. By the time the article appeared, the result had been declared; AV had been rejected.
My reason for returning to this referendum is not because I want to bore readers silly with more discussion of AV, but because I hope it may be of interest to look at the greatly changed political situation in the UK; changed, not least, by the AV result.
That result was in effect a defeat for the Liberal Democrats, who have always wanted to move away from the first past the post voting system. Inevitably, that policy defeat has had an effect on the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, which currently forms the government.
Cracks in the coalition
Coalitions are always subject to tensions between the member parties. In this particular case, the tensions have been exacerbated by the fact that, in the local elections that ran at the same time as the AV referendum, the Lib Dems did very badly. Many traditional supporters did not give support on this occasion. It is not unusual for an incumbent government party to lose support after a year or so in power, but the significant fact in this case is that it was the Lib Dems, the junior partner, rather than the Conservatives, who lost it. The leaders of the two parties are emphasising that the coalition is still coalescing, but the cracks and tensions are obvious.
Another major factor that emerged in these elections was the great success in Scotland of the Scottish National Party, which now enjoys a clear majority. The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, has made clear his intention to call a referendum on independence for Scotland. The other parties, including the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and Labour, did badly with Scottish voters.
A decision by Scottish voters to support independence from the U.K. would obviously dramatically change the political landscape. It would also be a major embarrassment for the U.K. government.
In the meantime, as part of the aftermath of the AV vote and the local government election results, other tensions in the coalition have grown. A major one concerns plans for major change in the National Health Service (NHS). The plans have been a key part of government, and particularly Conservative, policy and are proving extremely unpopular with large sections of the population. (This should not surprise anyone, given that the NHS, for all its problems, has been a British beacon since it was introduced just after the World War II. The Brits have never been able to understand the manic hostility in the United States to anything remotely similar.)
Another tension has arisen over plans for directly elected police commissioners to oversee chief constables. This flagship government policy has just been defeated by the House of Lords. The Home Secretary (Minister for Home Affairs) has said she will reverse the Lords' decision, but it remains a major embarrassment. It will certainly colour thinking about present plans to reform the House of Lords. In recent years there has been a great deal of tinkering with it, but it remains a large, cumbersome, and unelected part of parliament.
To sum up the rapidly moving situation, it is clear that a whole variety of constitutional issues are demanding attention and this in a country that has always prided itself on not having a constitution (although, of course, producing many constitutions for the countries of the former empire!) What is happening will pose challenges to the coalition government, and its two constituent members. It will pose equally serious challenges to the Labour Party.
Dramatic initiative
This coming week, incidentally, we are to see what can properly be described as a dramatic constitutional initiative, with the visit by the Queen to our next door neighbour, the Irish Republic. This will be the first state visit to the Republic by a British monarch since Ireland's independence, (which came after decades of great tension and with little credit to the U.K.'s handling of this particular colonial situation).
Those of us who try to follow Indian politics are aware that recent State elections, in the words of The Guardian, “consolidated female politicians in some of the country's most prominent positions”.
Now there's change for you and you may wonder why in the UK we are making such a song and dance about our changing political landscape. I can only answer: that's how we are.
Bill Kirkman is an Emeritus Fellow of Wolfson College Cambridge, UK. E-mail: bill.kirkman@gmail.com
