Winter is likely to be warmer than average, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting average minimum temperatures to be “warmer than average” over most of India.
The December-January-February season will be hotter, except over “northern-most parts”. Minimum temperatures over most parts of central and peninsular India are likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1 degree Celsius.
India’s ‘core cold wave’ zone covers Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana. Temperatures in these States, too, are expected to be on the higher side.
A trigger for the warm winters are the warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The IMD’s weather models expect these surface waters to cool over the winter.
Overall, winter temperatures have been on the rise. The IMD started issuing winter forecasts in 2016 and, except for 2017, had forecast warm winters for all years since then. Warm winters, experts say, are a sign of global warming. India on an average is 0.5 degree Celsius warmer than 50 years ago. Rising temperatures lead to warmer than average ground temperatures and consequently a rise in minimum temperatures.
Overall global temperatures are on the rise, with several studies indicating an increase by 1 degree Celsius over pre-industrial levels. At current projections, the global temperature is expected to rise 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century and intensify severe weather events.
