Winter is likely to be warmer than average, with fewer ‘cold wave’ days between December and February, according to a forecast by the India Meteorological Department.
The forecast suggests that ‘above normal’ seasonal minimum temperatures (>0.5° C) are most likely over most of the subdivisions of the country. However Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh in central India, would most likely see ‘normal’ (between 0.5°C and -0.5°C) seasonal minimum temperatures prevailing.
For forecasting warmer winters, meteorologists typically try to estimate the trends in daily minimum temperatures. Rising minimum temperatures, over winter, point to a warm winter season.
“There will be fewer days of cold wave conditions,” said K.J. Ramesh, Director-General, IMD.
However, winter in general would be colder than last year, said Mr. Ramesh.
The last winter season, in 2016-17, witnessed an anomaly of 1°C, which was the fourth warmest recorded since 1901.
The warming refers to above average winter temperatures from 1970-2010.
The IMD assessment comes even as the World Meteorological Organisation warned that “2018 was on course to be among the warmest years [globally] on record.”
The IMD has been releasing winter forecasts since 2016.
