The Congress is going to lose power in Maharashtra and Haryana. But, that was a conclusion one could have drawn before counting began this morning or before the votes were even polled on October 15. Not just the exit polls, but the palpable mood of the electorate – which was similar in Lok Sabha polls five months ago – in both states had made that a foregone conclusion. With traditional pre-poll alliances being called off, both states saw multi-cornered contests. A few hours into the election result trends in Maharashtra and Haryana, the emerging picture shows the BJP finishing as the single largest party and breaching the majority mark in the North Indian state. The Congress, which was the single largest party in both states five years ago, is struggling not to finish fourth in Maharashtra and third in Haryana. It may not succeed in doing even that.
Narendra Modi took the risk when he led the BJP’s assault in both states. Even though the party is falling short of the half-way mark in Maharashtra, it has nearly doubled its vote share. In Haryana, it is increasing its numbers over 10 times in five years. Modi can now claim the party’s success as his success as a matter of right. By contrast, efforts are already on in the Congress to shield vice-president Rahul Gandhi from the colossal losses. As exit poll results poured in three days ago, Congress leaders began speaking of how Gandhi could not be blamed for the party’s poor showing. “These are state elections and they are not a reflection on the national leadership of any party,” the Congress party spokesperson P.C. Chacko said on October 17.
Gandhi had lost the battle even before it had begun: By keeping away from the battlefield. Despite his claims of being a youth icon, he showed little enthusiasm and addressed barely 10 rallies – six in Maharashtra and four in Hayana. It was a part of the Congress’s old strategy to shield Rahul from all that goes wrong with the party but give him credit for all that it gets right. Modi displayed greater energy with 35 rallies, increasing the number by 10 from the original plan as he went along.
The Congress-NCP combine ruled Maharashtra for 15 years keeping the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance out of power. In Haryana, the Congress ruled single-handedly for an unprecedented two consecutive terms and the BJP remained a fringe player. Anti-incumbency is a given in democratic politics and so are electoral wins and losses. State elections are no longer localised events. They are opportunities for national leaders to communicate not just with the local populace but also with a national audience through the vast coverage they get in the national and social media. Irrespective of the party’s prospects, Gandhi could have seized the opportunity to take on the BJP but he did not. You really lose in politics when you stop trying. And under Rahul Gandhi, the Congress has stopped trying.
