Political Line | The happy and the unhappy after the Karnataka elections

Regional parties might want the BJP to lose, but they don’t want the Congress to win either

May 20, 2023 07:46 pm | Updated May 21, 2023 11:39 am IST

Illustration for The Hindu

Illustration for The Hindu | Photo Credit: Satheesh Vellinezhi

(This is the latest edition of the Political Line newsletter curated by Varghese K. George. The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week. You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox every Friday.)

The return of the Congress in Karnataka may indicate a revival of the wide social coalition of various caste and religious groups that once propelled the party. Karnataka cannot be taken as a weathercock for the whole country, as the political character of other States, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, is significantly different. Nevertheless, victory in Karnataka offers a prompt for the Congress party to move away from the formula that it has been trying for a while, and attempt something new. 

The fabric that worked for the Congress in Karnataka, according to Rahul Gandhi, was woven with the interests of the poor, the Dalits, and so-called backward classes. It can be argued that the Congress has always claimed to stand with the poor, but the difference is that the party has offered leadership to marginalised sections of the society. 

The elevation of Mallikarjun Kharge, a Dalit from Karnataka as the president of the Congress, helped the party immensely, as analysis shows. Siddaramaiah, the new Chief Minister, is said to be consumed with caste justice politics, but his popularity among the larger public is unmistakable. 

Of all the factors that worked for the Congress, the most significant is that it revived the old umbrella coalition by not merely paying lip service to the welfare of the weaker sections, but also offering them leadership. Our editorial captures this dynamic.

While Congress victory may have rattled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership, many within the saffron party have reasons to secretly rejoice, or at least breathe a sigh of relief. The uninterrupted winning streak of the BJP had rendered most midlevel leaders dispensable. The setback in Karnataka gives them all a fresh lease of life. “In this scenario there are many within the party who want to pause and do a rethink on the leadership situation in the States of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh,” writes Nistula Hebbar.

The Congress comeback in Karnataka has unsettled regional politicians of several hues. Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav have suggested that the Congress give way to them and quit the field where they are not strong. In Telangana, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) founder and Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao has asked his party cadre not to be perturbed by the Congress victory — in fact that is one State where there might be a spill-over effect of Karnataka.

All these parties are platforms of anti-BJP politics, and their mutual rivalries are no less. An ascendant Congress is discomforting for them as much as it so for the BJP. How will they deal with the situation?  

My colleague Abhinay Deshpande and I met with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar this week to discuss this question. In a freewheeling conversation that lasted for nearly an hour at his Silver Oaks residence in Mumbai, Mr. Pawar, a three-term former Chief Minister, outlined the possibilities and challenges of Opposition unity ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He believes that all differences between non-BJP parties can be sorted out after the polls.

The regional parties might want the BJP to lose, but they don’t want the Congress to win. That’s the Big Picture.

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