Assembly by-elections in Tamil Nadu invariably do not administer any shock to the ruling party or its allies. Since 1980, only on eight occasions out of 44 by-elections, the Opposition has registered victories.
Yet, both principal political parties of the State – All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) – take no chances and treat such polls as a matter of prestige, whether they are in power or not.
On Wednesday, the filing of nominations for the Sankarankoil assembly by-election began. The polling has been scheduled for March 18.
Even prior to the 1981, by-elections were generally no shockers for the ruling party of the day, but there were a few occasions when the party in power did suffer electoral setbacks.
A major upset in a by-election happened in June 1963 when the DMK wrested the Tiruvannamalai constituency from the Congress. P.U. Shanmugam, who later went on to become Minister both in the DMK and AIADMK Ministries, was elected then, defeating his only opponent, T.S. Bhadrachalam Pillai, by 1,475 votes.
The next came in February 1974 when the AIADMK, a fledgling party then, captured the Coimbatore (West) constituency from the DMK. This time, the winner was C. Aranganayagam, who also subsequently became Minister in the AIADMK governments led by M.G. Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa. At that time, the now-defunct Congress (Organisation) finished second and the DMK, which was the ruling party at the time of the by-poll, came third. While the margin between the winner and the Congress (O) nominee was 517 votes, the difference between the Congress (O) and the DMK was more than 8,700 votes.
After its inception in 1972, the AIADMK has always presented itself as the effective alternative to the DMK. But, in a curious turn of events, the two parties found themselves on the same side during the Tirupattur (then part of the undivided Ramanathapuram district) by-election in November 1981. Both backed the Congress. In the May 1980 Assembly elections, the DMK and the Congress contested together but the AIADMK emerged victorious.
Even though the AIADMK was not an ally of the Congress then, it justified its support to the Congress as then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had sought support from all parties. Another reason adduced was that in normal course, the party which won the seat in the previous election should be supported to fill the vacancy.
It was another story that the AIADMK and the Congress warmed up to each other in due course and both faced together the by-elections to four constituencies in May 1984. While the DMK won two constituencies – Anna Nagar and Mayiladuthurai, the AIADMK and the Congress shared one seat each – Uppilyapuram and Thanjavur. Later that year when the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections were held, the alliance continued.
Of the by-elections in the early 1980s, it was Tiruchendur (March 1983) that was remembered for long. In an intense contest, the ruling AIADMK scraped through, overcoming the DMK by a slender margin of 1,710 votes.
The 1990s and the last 10 years saw the State's by-election pattern getting reinforced, as the ruling party of the day was the winner in most of the cases. In May 1994, the ruling AIADMK retained the Mylapore seat, facing opponents including the DMK, Congress and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
During the DMK regime of 1996-2001, the AIADMK and its ally, Communist Party of India (Marxist), won the Natham and Tiruvattar by-elections in October 1999 but their victory was overshadowed by the results of the Lok Sabha elections, in which the DMK-led front captured a majority of the seats.
In the last 10 years, the Gummidipoondi and Kancheepuram by-elections, both held in May 2005, saw a fierce fight between the AIADMK and the combined Opposition. The AIADMK, which lost badly a year earlier in the Lok Sabha elections, however romped home.
An off-shoot of the Thirumangalam by-poll of January 2009 was the emergence of the term ‘Thirumangalam formula' in political parlance to denote buying of votes with cash and gifts. In January 2009, the DMK won the seat, defeating the AIADMK by about 39,000 votes. In the Pennagaram by-poll in March 2010 when the DMK retained the seat, the AIADMK, which was pushed to the third slot next to the Pattali Makkal Katchi, forfeited its deposit. Eleven by-elections were held during 2006-2011, in which the DMK was the winner in eight and its ally, Congress, in three.
After the AIADMK stormed back to office in the April 2011 Assembly polls, the State witnessed the by-election in Tiruchi (West) five months later and the ruling party won hands down.
Two Chief Ministers have entered the House through by-elections: K. Kamaraj from Gudiyatham in August 1954 and Jayalalithaa from Andipatti in February 2002.
In line with their traditional approach, the DMK and the AIADMK are preparing themselves to face yet another fierce battle in Sankarankoil.
