Four months after the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) stopped the Narendra Modi juggernaut from rolling into the Dravidian heartland, the October 21 Assembly by-elections in Vikravandi and Nanguneri are set to ascertain afresh the political strengths of the DMK and ruling AIADMK.
The seats fell vacant following the resignation of Nanguneri Congress legislator H. Vasanthakumar, consequent to his election to Parliament, and the death of DMK Vikravandi legislator K Rathamani.
While the DMK and its ally, the Congress, are seeking a renewed mandate in their respective constituencies, the AIADMK has fielded candidates in both seats with the continued support of the PMK, DMDK and BJP among others.
The DMK, which won in 13 of the 22 Assembly seats where bypolls were conducted in April, now faces the challenge of proving right its leader M.K. Stalin’s repeated claims that popular will is against the Edappadi K Palaniswami government.
Unlike the April by-elections, which was a do or die battle for Mr. Palaniswami to save his government, the task of the ruling party in Vikravandi and Nanguneri is to fight the perception of being a weak political target of the Opposition.
Change in ground situation
Between April and now, the ground situation has changed considerably. While the rainbow alliances headed by the two Dravidian parties remain intact, the strong anti-BJP, anti-AIADMK mood witnessed then no longer exists. This was established during the August Lok Sabha bypoll in Vellore, when the DMK candidate’s victory margin narrowed to 8,141 votes over his AIADMK rival. This was in striking contrast to the massive three or four lakh votes victory margins registered by the DMK-led SPA candidates in many parliamentary constituencies. In fact, apart from the Chidambaram (Reserved) seat, this was the only four-digit victory margin in the State in the 2019 parliamentary polls.
With TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) opting out, the AIADMK may not suffer a big split in its core traditional vote bank comprising the party cadres and their families. Also with Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) staying away, the three to four per cent polled by the party, would be up for grabs. Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi is in the fray in both seats.
Besides, the ruling party would be able to deploy its resources in a more channelised manner with campaign responsibilities in the two constituencies being assigned to Ministers.
The DMK appears conscious of the difficulties in taking on a ruling party in a by-election concentrated in just two seats. In fact, its treasurer Duraimurugan recently told The Hindu , “These are yet another by-elections and I am not ready to attach any importance. The outcome is not going to bring down the government. Neither will it pave the way for the DMK to capture power.” He had added, “People change their mind quickly and that is why the outcome changes in a short span of four months.”
While that in no way would mean conceding ground to the rivals, the reality is that the AIADMK with the backing of the PMK in Vikravandi would be a formidable contestant. In Nanguneri, the Congress has to bank on the vote transfer from the DMK to take on the ruling alliance.
Since the results of the bypolls could be a forerunner of the 2021 Assembly elections, the AIADMK and DMK will go all out to prove their respective might.
