The AIADMK’s new allies – the PMK, the BJP and the DMDK – may turn out to be beneficial to the ruling party in at least seven Assembly constituencies where byelections are due next month, if one were to go by their performance in the 2016 Assembly election.
In total, 18 constituencies will witness bypolls on April 18, 17 of which are held by the AIADMK and one by the DMK.
Of the 18 seats, the PMK came second in one seat (Pappireddipatti); third in four (Poonamallee, Tiruporur, Sholingur and Gudiyatham) and fourth in two (Hosur and Harur). In four out of these seven constituencies, the votes secured by the PMK were higher than the margin between the winner (AIADMK) and the runner-up, thereby tilting the scales in favour of the AIADMK. In other words, the PMK had recorded a decisive margin in the four seats – Poonamallee, Tiruporur, Sholingur and Harur, apart from Perambur, where the victory margin was hardly 0.3%, and the PMK came fifth, getting around 2% votes.
However, Pappireddipatti has not been included for the purpose of calculation of constituencies with PMK’s decisive margin as the party finished second in the seat with 29.47%. vote share.
In respect of the BJP, it finished third in two constituencies (Hosur and Paramakudi) and fourth in five constituencies (Perambur, Andipatti, Periyakulam, Sattur and Vilathikulam). But it had a decisive margin only in Hosur and Perambur.
As for the DMDK, it finished third in Nilakottai and Andipatti and fourth in Ambur and Pappireddipatti.
While the PMK and the BJP contested separately in 2016, the DMDK was part of an alliance that included two Left parties, the MDMK, the VCK and the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar).
Anti-incumbency factor
The need for allies, both for the Lok Sabha polls and the byelections, has arisen for the AIADMK in view of two developments — the absence of a charismatic leader like Jayalalithaa and the presence of a rebel in T.T.V. Dhinakaran, who was able to push the ruling party to the second slot in the R.K. Nagar byelection in December 2017.
Opposition parties are of the view that the AIADMK-led front is facing anti-incumbency on two counts — at the Centre and in the State.
The importance of the allies can also be seen from another angle. If the three allies are able to repeat in Hosur what they did in 2016, they would secure nearly 22% votes for the AIADMK.
In Ambur, the parties, put together, can contribute around 10%. [As per the understanding between the ruling party and its allies, the former would contest in all the Assembly constituencies that are going to the bypolls].
Expressing hope that the ruling party would win hands down in the byelections and the Lok Sabha polls, Covai Sathyan, the party’s spokesperson, contended that while the allies of the AIADMK had a proven track record with quantifiable vote share, many of the DMK’s allies were not similarly placed, giving the ruling party an edge.
