With the memories of ‘Tirumangalam' haunting south Tamil Nadu, comprising Madurai, Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Theni and Dindigul districts, is all set to witness a crucial electoral battle on April 13.
At stake is the pride of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's ‘match winner' M.K. Alagiri, who will not be happy with anything less than a sweep of the south. The DMK is contesting 24 seats, leaving 10 to the Congress and two to debutant in the region, Pattali Makkal Katchi. The ruling party is pitted against the AIADMK in 17 constituencies.
The principal Opposition party has fielded its candidates in 22 constituencies. Its partners Communist Party of India (Marxist) has been given three seats and Communist Party of India, two. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam has its candidates in six seats and All India Forward Bloc, Puthiya Tamilagam and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, one seat each.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded candidates in 34 constituencies and the Bahujan Samaj Party, 31. The Janata Party is contesting on the BJP symbol.
Historically, the region has supported the Congress since the 1951 general elections. From 1951 to 1967, the Congress has won overwhelmingly, with the Forward Bloc walking away with a few seats. The rise of the DMK as a political entity, embellished by the presence of M.G. Ramachandran, enticed a new generation of voters to support it from 1967 till the 1977 elections.
In between, MGR broke away from the DMK and his nascent outfit, Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which later had ‘All India' as a prefix, marked its entry into the political arena winning the by-election to Dindigul Lok Sabha seat in 1974. MGR became Chief Minister by winning from Aruppukottai in 1977, Madurai West in 1980 and Andipatti in 1984. The AIADMK participated in the first post-MGR election in 1989 as a divided house.
Except in 1989, the alliance that had the Congress as a partner has swept the polls. But, voters have been choosing the DMK or the AIADMK alliance alternatively since 1989. As long as MGR was alive, no party could make any dent in what was looked at as AIADMK's fortress. South Tamil Nadu also has the distinction of electing more Chief Ministers – K. Kamaraj, M.G. Ramachandran, Jayalalithaa and O. Panneerselvam – than any other region.
For the first time since its formation, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Vaiko is finding itself on the sidelines, playing the role of spectator. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam of Vijayakant, which was launched in Madurai in 2005, is in comfortable company. The party gave a scare to the major Dravidian outfits in the last few elections, contesting on its own.
The questions asked in this election are: Will south Tamil Nadu repeat its behaviour of giving mandate to the major alliances alternatively? Will the DMDK's alliance with the AIADMK affect its political base? Will the loss of the MDMK prove crucial for the AIADMK alliance?
There is a feeling that the DMDK will more than offset the loss of the MDMK. B. Regina Papa, organiser of the women's wing of the DMDK, echoes this sentiment. She sees “awakening” among party workers and knitting together with allies. Since the vigil maintained by the Election Commission has prevented the use of money power to a large extent, she is confident of her alliance winning a majority of the seats.
The Puthiya Tamilagam, which has a notable presence in the region, will be to the advantage of the AIADMK. But, the presence of BSP will ensure a split in Dalit votes.
The strength of the DMK and its allies is the delivery record in the last five years. Added to this is the proven ability of Mr. Alagiri to mobilise forces, especially during elections.
The thrust was on industrialisation of the region and many initiatives were floated to bring industrial units to Madurai and surrounding areas in the last five years.
The potential of south, which generated a major chunk of the IT work force, was sought to be exploited by opening two IT parks around Madurai. Though one park has been opened at Ilanthaikulam, the response from IT majors has been lukewarm.
A concern for the Democratic Progressive Alliance is the Congress. There is discontent over the choice of candidates in several places, including Tirupparankundram and Virudhunagar. In Virudhunagar, some of the Congress leaders are working for the victory of DMDK candidate K. Pandiarajan.
A former MLA of the Congress and Tamil Maanila Congress, R. Chokkar, feels that it is difficult to predict a victory for any particular alliance. However, he is of the opinion that the factor of the Congress being in the winning side will be put to test in 2011.
In the fray are former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam (Bodinaikanur); Ministers I. Periyasamy (Athoor), K.R. Periakaruppan (Tiruppattur), A. Tamilarasi (Manamadurai), K.K.S.S.R. Ramachandran (Aruppukottai) and Thangam Thennarasu (Tiruchuli).
